commodity demand sa — SA1
South Australia's spot price sits at $136.97/MWh with demand at 1,257.69 MW as of 06:30 AEST, continuing the sustained elevated-price regime that has characterised the region since the morning ramp. The day's demand profile followed a classic autumn weekday shape: a deep overnight trough bottoming near 447 MW around 14:30 AEST (UTC+10:30 offset applied) when prices turned sharply negative — as low as -$4.93/MWh — before a rapid morning climb that lifted demand above 1,500 MW by 18:20 AEST and drove prices to intraday highs of $262/MWh. That demand-to-price elasticity is stark: a roughly 1,100 MW swing from trough to peak corresponded to a price move of over $265/MWh, illustrating how thinly margined the SA supply stack is once demand crosses the 1,400 MW threshold.
Prices have been anchored in the $120–$170/MWh band since approximately 17:00 AEST, with demand now easing gradually from the 1,530 MW peak. The current generation mix — 283.9 MW gas CCGT, 109.47 MW gas OCGT, and 46.93 MW wind, with solar at zero — places renewable penetration at just 10.66% and grid carbon intensity at 0.4776 tCO2/MWh, both consistent with the post-sunset dispatch position. With no solar available to moderate thermal dispatch costs, the marginal price floor through tonight is set by gas-fired plant.
Forecast prices for the 07:00–07:30 AEST half-hours (21:00–21:30 UTC) show significant variance across successive AEMO runs, ranging from $138/MWh to $290/MWh for the same target intervals. That dispersion signals genuine supply-stack uncertainty as demand holds above 1,250 MW into the evening. Load window forecasts point to the overnight period from approximately 10:30 AEST (00:00 UTC) as the next low-price window, with forecast prices declining to near zero or negative as demand retreats toward the 700–900 MW range and wind generation is expected to increase.
Traders and demand-response managers should note that AEMO has issued "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B for every interval between 15:30 and 16:30 AEST (05:30–06:30 UTC) — a run of 13 consecutive intervals covering the early-morning price period. One earlier interval (04:40 AEST / 02:40 UTC) has since been confirmed unchanged. Until AEMO resolves the remaining reviews, settlement prices for those intervals carry revision risk, and any exposure in that window should be treated as provisional.