Interconnector Watch

NEM-wide interconnector flows at 06:30 AEST show one binding constraint shaping the market: QNI (NSW1-QLD1) is pinned at its import limit of -760 MW, meaning Queensland is pulling the maximum permissible flow from New South Wales. With QLD sitting at $100.93/MWh and NSW at $120/MWh, the binding constraint is preventing the price spread from collapsing — NSW cannot export additional volume north to arbitrage the differential, and the $19/MWh gap persists directly because of that cap. No constraint notices are currently active in the system, but the binding import limit on QNI is itself the operative constraint.

On the Victorian interconnectors, VIC-NSW (VIC1-NSW1) is carrying 344.72 MW northward from Victoria into New South Wales, running at roughly 34% of its 1,017.51 MW export limit with room to move. Heywood (V-SA) is flowing 207.45 MW from Victoria into South Australia at about 46% of its 450.56 MW export capacity, consistent with SA's $111.93/MWh price sitting above Victoria's $108.72/MWh — a modest $3.21/MWh spread that does not appear to be driving interconnector saturation. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) adds a further 18 MW from VIC to SA, running well within its 98 MW export ceiling.

Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is at zero flow, with Tasmania and Victoria prices sitting close at $110.22/MWh and $108.72/MWh respectively — the $1.50/MWh spread provides minimal incentive for scheduled transfers. The North Queensland interconnector (N-Q-MNSP1) is carrying 61.8 MW southward toward the QLD mainland at roughly 45% of its 136.1 MW import limit, contributing marginally to Queensland's supply position. No MW loss figures are available in the current dataset across any link.

The dominant market dynamic right now is the QNI binding constraint. NSW remains the highest-priced NEM region at $120/MWh, and as long as QNI stays pinned at -760 MW, that spread against Queensland cannot close through interconnector arbitrage. All other interconnectors are operating with meaningful headroom and are not constraining regional price convergence at this time.