commodity demand sa — SA1

South Australia's spot price sits at $111.93/MWh with demand at 1,181.67 MW as of 06:30 AEST. That price level is consistent with the evening ramp that began around 06:00 AEST, when demand climbed from around 600 MW at midnight through to a daytime peak of roughly 1,517 MW at 08:25 AEST before easing back. The $100+/MWh pricing corridor that has held since 06:00 AEST reflects the tighter supply stack as demand sits in the 1,150–1,200 MW band — a level that consistently attracts prices in the $85–$130/MWh range based on today's observed price-to-demand relationship. Wind is generating 519.73 MW and gas CCGT 40 MW, with solar offline at this hour.

The price sensitivity curve today is steep at the margins. During the overnight trough — demand as low as 38.66 MW at 12:30 AEST — spot prices were effectively zero or negative, with extended periods of negative pricing between roughly 13:30 and 15:30 AEST. As demand recovered through the morning ramp, prices escalated sharply: each incremental 100 MW of demand above 900 MW brought progressively higher clearing prices, with the 1,450–1,520 MW peak window between 07:50 and 08:30 AEST consistently clearing between $115–$133/MWh. This implies a marginal cost inflection point somewhere around the 1,100–1,200 MW mark where the supply stack tightens meaningfully.

The forward price outlook points to a sharp drop ahead. AEMO pre-dispatch forecasts for 07:00 AEST price at approximately $110/MWh — consistent with where we are now — but forecasts collapse to around $33/MWh by 07:30 AEST and near zero or negative through to approximately 14:00 AEST (00:00–03:00 UTC), as Sunday demand tracks lower through the mid-morning and early afternoon and wind output is expected to remain material. The 07:00–08:00 AEST window (forecast ~$20/MWh) marks the transition as demand rises again toward a secondary peak, before afternoon prices are expected to remain subdued through the solar generation window. Traders should note that a large volume of early-morning intervals — 05:30 through to 06:30 AEST — are subject to active AEMO price review under clause 3.9.2B for manifestly incorrect inputs; settlements for those intervals remain subject to change.

The structural demand story today is a Sunday autumn profile: a pronounced overnight trough driven by low commercial and industrial load, a sharp morning ramp sensitive to residential heating demand (ambient temperature 18.9°C, 96% cloud cover), and a daytime plateau well below weekday peaks. With no solar generation currently and wind at moderate output, the afternoon price trajectory will be sensitive to how quickly rooftop solar ramps as cloud cover lifts — any sustained solar contribution above 300–400 MW into the 1,200–1,400 MW demand window has the potential to push prices back toward zero or negative territory, consistent with the pattern seen across the middle hours of today's record.