Interconnector Watch

Three interconnectors are binding simultaneously this interval, and the resulting price architecture is stark: VIC1 sits at $31.69/MWh while SA1 reaches $103.44/MWh — a $71.75/MWh spread that is directly enforced by constrained westward transfers. Heywood (V-SA) is pinned at its export limit of 501.61 MW flowing Victoria-to-SA, and Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is simultaneously binding at 169.5 MW in the same direction. Together these two corridors are pushing a combined 671 MW westward into SA, yet the price differential persists because both links are at their respective export ceilings and cannot relieve SA's tighter supply position further. VIC-NSW (QNI's southern counterpart) is also binding, with 735.14 MW flowing north from Victoria into NSW — matching its export limit exactly. That constraint holds NSW at $57.06/MWh, materially above VIC1's $31.69/MWh, with Victoria unable to export additional volume northward despite the $25.37/MWh incentive to do so.

On the Queensland border, QNI (NSW1-QLD1) carries just -1.43 MW — effectively zero net flow — directed south into NSW. QLD sits at $71.69/MWh against NSW's $57.06/MWh, a $14.63/MWh spread, but the interconnector is not binding; the export limit is currently set at -1.43 MW, suggesting dispatch is constrained to near-zero rather than the link being physically saturated. N-Q-MNSP1 (the HVDC directlink) is carrying 9 MW northward into QLD and is not binding. The combination of negligible QNI flow and modest Directlink transfer means the QLD–NSW price separation is persisting without meaningful arbitrage pressure from either direction.

Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is at zero flow with an import limit of zero and an export limit of 125 MW, indicating the link is currently blocked from importing into Victoria from Tasmania. TAS1 prices at $88.20/MWh — $56.51/MWh above VIC1 — yet no energy is transiting the link. An earlier contingency reclassification involving the Gordon–Chapel St 220 kV lines in TAS1 due to lightning was cancelled overnight (AEMO notice 141101, effective 06:04 AEST), so that constraint set (F-T-CSGO) is no longer active. The zero flow is nonetheless notable given the price differential, and traders should monitor whether Basslink dispatch headroom opens through the morning as TAS demand evolves against VIC1's relatively low spot price.

The net picture today is a Victoria-centric dispatch regime where VIC1 acts as the low-price hub exporting at capacity on both its northern and western borders, while binding constraints on VIC-NSW and Heywood are actively enforcing the regional price separations. SA's $103.44/MWh reflects constrained import capacity rather than a lack of willing sellers in VIC1. Engineers should note that the Yallourn–Rowville 7 & 8 220 kV lines in VIC1 went through two credible contingency reclassifications due to lightning earlier this morning (notices 141097 and 141100), with the most recent cancellation confirmed at 09:09 AEST