commodity demand nsw — NSW1

NSW spot sits at $57.06/MWh with total demand at 7,290 MW as of 06:35 AEST. That price is notably subdued relative to where demand was earlier today — the region touched a daily peak of 9,065 MW around 19:10 AEST when prices were running in the $77–$92/MWh band, and has since pulled back steadily as the evening progresses. The demand curve today traced a textbook autumn profile: a deep overnight trough bottoming near 4,850 MW around 12:45 AEST with prices repeatedly printing negative (as low as -$3.13/MWh), a sharp morning ramp from roughly 06:00 AEST that drove prices from $23–$40/MWh into the $77–$98/MWh range by 17:30–18:30 AEST, a broad midday plateau in the 8,000–9,065 MW range sustaining prices in the high $70s to low $90s, then a steady afternoon and evening descent.

The price-to-demand relationship today has been tightly coupled on the upswing but somewhat compressed on the way down. Demand has fallen roughly 1,775 MW from its peak, yet prices have only retreated from around $91/MWh to $57/MWh — a relatively modest softening — suggesting mid-merit supply is clearing in a fairly tight band at current demand levels. Black coal dominates the generation mix at 5,339 MW, with wind contributing 344 MW and hydro 182 MW; gas is fully offline. The current carbon intensity sits at 0.8011 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 8.97% of the mix.

Forecast prices for 07:00–07:30 AEST tonight point to $62.74–$57.06/MWh, consistent with demand continuing to ease toward the 6,500–7,000 MW range as households wind down for the evening. The market notices add one network context worth noting: the Avon–Marulan 16 330 kV line was on a planned outage from 07:00 to approximately 14:50 AEST today, which constrained inter-regional transfer capacity between NSW and Victoria during the morning peak period and will have contributed to the elevated price sensitivity seen during the 17:30–19:10 AEST demand ramp. That line is now back in service.

Overnight, demand is forecast to drop back below 5,000 MW in the small hours of Friday morning, and load window pricing signals prices returning negative from approximately 08:00 AEST onwards tonight, deepening to around -$23 to -$26/MWh in the early morning hours. Flexible loads — pumping, industrial processes, scheduled charging — have a clear window from roughly 23:00 AEST through to 05:00 AEST Friday to access near-zero or negative pricing before the Friday morning demand ramp reasserts upward price pressure from approximately 05:30 AEST.