commodity demand sa — SA1

South Australia's spot price sits at $170.44/MWh with demand at 1,408.86 MW at 6:35 AEST, holding well below the day's peak of 1,731.51 MW reached around 19:00–19:05 AEST. That morning ramp was the critical price driver: as demand surged from roughly 800 MW at its overnight trough through 1,500 MW by 17:30 AEST and into the 1,700 MW range through the 19:00 AEST hour, prices tracked accordingly — peaking at $300.75–$360.55/MWh during the 17:30–14:45 AEST window and sustaining $200–$270/MWh through much of the working day. The current $170.44/MWh price reflects demand retreating from that peak as the evening load eases, with the generation mix now showing 202 MW from gas CCGT, 139 MW from gas OCGT, and 99.83 MW from wind, with solar at zero given the time of night.

The day's demand trajectory was notably volatile relative to price. Between approximately 2:00–4:00 AEST, demand fell to its overnight low of around 758–800 MW yet prices remained stubbornly elevated in the $225–$270/MWh range — a structural feature of SA's market where thin overnight supply margins and gas dispatch economics keep a price floor well above the cost of comparable demand in other regions. The AEMO LOR1 notice issued for SA between 01:30–02:00 AEST is directly relevant here: forecast capacity reserve of 406 MW against a minimum available of 258 MW during that window explains why prices stayed above $230/MWh even with demand sub-800 MW.

The 07:00–09:00 AEST demand ramp — from 1,254 MW to 1,731 MW in under two hours — produced the sharpest price response of the day, with multiple intervals printing $262–$300.75/MWh. This confirms a price sensitivity threshold in SA of roughly $200–$250/MWh once demand clears approximately 1,400 MW and dispatchable capacity tightens. The current generation mix at 20.87% renewables and 0.4367 tCO2/MWh carbon intensity is consistent with gas-dominated marginal pricing at this demand level.

For the remainder of today, the forecast RRP for the 07:00 AEST target interval (15 April) clusters around $170.44/MWh across the most recent pre-dispatch runs, with load window data pointing to near-zero or mildly negative prices between approximately 09:30–12:30 AEST as demand falls to overnight levels and wind generation is available. Traders should watch the morning ramp from 13:00 AEST onwards: if demand replicates today's trajectory back through 1,400 MW, the supply stack will again tighten and prices are forecast to lift toward the $170–$200/MWh range before the 07:00–09:00 AEST peak window.