Commodity Demand — NSW1: Tuesday 14 April 2026
NSW spot price sits at $84.79/MWh with total demand at 7,453 MW as of 6:35 AEST, tracking upward through the evening ramp. Demand has climbed steadily from a overnight trough near 4,600 MW in the 11:30–13:00 AEST window, where prices repeatedly printed at or below zero — reaching -$25.50/MWh at the nadir — before recovering sharply as morning load built. The morning peak reached 9,085 MW at 18:30 AEST with prices pushing to $134.89/MWh, confirming tight price sensitivity at the upper end of the demand curve: each incremental step above 9,000 MW was met with prices consistently in the $100–$135/MWh band. The current 7,453 MW level sits in a mid-range zone where prices are settling into the $84–$99/MWh corridor as the evening ramp progresses.
The demand trajectory from 6:00 AEST onward tells a clear story. Evening demand is climbing through successive 5-minute intervals — 7,018 MW at 6:00 AEST, 7,210 MW at 6:10, 7,324 MW at 6:20, and 7,453 MW at the latest read — with prices holding in a tight $84–$98/MWh range. This gradual ramp, absent any sharp spike, reflects typical April shoulder-season evening behaviour where cooling loads are modest. The generation mix at 6:25 AEST shows black coal at 5,836 MW and hydro at 456 MW carrying the bulk of supply, with wind contributing 81 MW and solar at zero, consistent with post-sunset conditions. Carbon intensity stands at 0.7986 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 9.25% of the mix.
Forecast pricing for the 7:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) interval has converged to $84.79/MWh across the most recent PASA runs, down from early-day forecasts above $106/MWh, suggesting the dispatch engine sees adequate supply at current demand levels. The 7:30 AEST interval is forecast at $65.50/MWh, pointing to a price step-down as evening demand passes its secondary peak and load begins easing. Overnight intervals from 8:00 AEST onwards are forecast well below $20/MWh, with multiple windows again forecast negative — consistent with the overnight pattern seen in the current trading day. Load-shifting operators targeting lowest-cost windows should focus on the 8:00–10:00 AEST range where forecast prices cluster between -$3 and +$10/MWh.
No market notices directly affect NSW demand conditions today. The active AEMO notices relate to QLD transmission contingency reclassifications (Chalumbin–Turkinje lines, since cancelled) and historical price review processes for the 08:25–08:45 AEST intervals where manifestly incorrect inputs were investigated; the 08:25 interval was subsequently confirmed unchanged. These do not carry material price risk into the remainder of today's NSW dispatch.