commodity demand sa — SA1
South Australia's spot price sits at $138/MWh with demand at 1,341 MW as of 06:30 AEST, well off the day's peak of 1,764 MW reached around 19:00 AEST during the morning business ramp. That peak coincided with prices in the $161–$220/MWh range, reflecting the tight relationship between demand and gas-fired dispatch in a region where the generation mix is currently 256 MW CCGT, 165 MW OCGT, and just 21.5 MW wind — renewables sitting at only 4.85% of supply. The overnight trough saw demand fall to around 933 MW with prices as low as $5–$13/MWh, confirming the steep price sensitivity SA exhibits across its daily demand swing of roughly 830 MW.
Today's price trajectory shows notable volatility at elevated demand levels. The 1,400–1,760 MW band through the morning and midday period produced a persistent floor around $139–$170/MWh, with frequent spikes to $227–$300/MWh at intervals where demand pulsed upward or supply tightened. AEMO's price review notices for intervals between 15:55 and 16:15 AEST (around the 1,350 MW demand zone on the way down) flag possible manifestly incorrect inputs, so settlement outcomes for those periods remain subject to revision.
Looking ahead, the forecast price signals for the 07:00–08:00 AEST window point to $138–$240/MWh, consistent with the morning demand rebuild that typically pushes SA back toward the 1,300–1,500 MW range as commercial and industrial load comes online. Load window data flags the overnight period from 09:00–11:00 AEST as the optimal low-price window, with forecast prices averaging $10–$60/MWh as demand sits in the 950–1,050 MW range. One risk factor to monitor: AEMO issued a Forecast LOR1 notice for SA between 11:30–12:00 AEST today (01:30–02:00 UTC), citing a reserve shortfall of 148 MW against a 406 MW requirement — that window aligns with the overnight demand trough where gas plant headroom is tightest, and could produce price spikes analogous to the $360/MWh prints seen overnight around 12:50–13:00 AEST on the data.
The grid stress score of 73.3 is consistent with the current supply stack position: with solar offline overnight and wind near zero, the region is heavily reliant on gas, leaving limited buffer against any further demand lift or generation outage before prices escalate sharply toward the $270–$360/MWh range seen repeatedly in the prior 24 hours.