commodity demand sa — SA1

South Australia is trading at $69.93/MWh with demand at 1,358.69 MW as of 06:30 AEST. That price sits well below the elevated levels seen during the morning and midday windows, when demand peaked at approximately 1,676 MW and prices repeatedly hit $129.99/MWh and above — including a spike to $175.97/MWh at 10:40 AEST. The current demand level represents a meaningful step down from that intraday peak, and price has responded accordingly, dropping from a sustained $100–$130/MWh band that persisted from roughly 08:00 through to 20:00 AEST. The sharp contrast with overnight conditions — where demand fell below 920 MW and prices were consistently negative, ranging from -$3/MWh to -$12.68/MWh — illustrates just how price-elastic this region is relative to load level.

The current generation mix shows gas CCGT at 201.34 MW and gas OCGT at 87.22 MW supplying the bulk of dispatched capacity, with wind contributing only 42.29 MW and solar offline. Grid carbon intensity sits at 0.4695 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 12.78% — a significant shift from the overnight position where renewables exceeded 90% and prices were negative. The transition from wind-dominated overnight supply to a gas-dominant daytime position is the core driver of today's elevated and volatile price profile across the day.

Looking ahead, demand is tracking upward from the current 1,358 MW — the settlement data shows a rising trajectory from a local trough around 20:00 AEST. Forecast RRPs for the 07:00–07:30 AEST window (21:00–21:30 UTC) are clustering in the $96–$138/MWh range across multiple forecast runs, signalling the market expects prices to lift again as demand climbs into what is likely the post-sunset evening demand ramp. The active AEMO reserve notice (141048) flagging a Forecast LOR1 in SA from 11:30–12:00 AEST on 14 April — with forecast capacity reserve of 258 MW against a requirement of 406 MW — adds a tail-risk dimension to the week ahead, though it does not directly affect today's dispatch.

Traders and demand-response managers should note the clear price floor around $70–$80/MWh at current demand levels, with upside exposure likely as load rises toward the 1,400–1,500 MW range this evening. The earlier price history confirms that SA dispatch tightens materially above approximately 1,550 MW, with gas OCGT marginal pricing pushing prices into the $100–$130/MWh band. Any wind resource improvement tonight would soften that trajectory; the current low wind output of 42.29 MW offers little buffer.