commodity demand nsw — NSW1

NSW spot is at $64.89/MWh with demand sitting at 7,324 MW as of 06:30 AEST. Demand has recovered sharply from an overnight trough of approximately 3,494 MW at around 12:50 AEST, climbing through the morning ramp and peaking near 8,354 MW around 18:05 AEST before easing back. The price-demand relationship through today's session has been pronounced: when demand crossed 7,400 MW during the morning ramp, prices spiked to $65–$77/MWh, and the midday plateau between roughly 7,600–8,350 MW sustained prices consistently in the $51–$77/MWh band. The sharpest price sensitivity occurred between 06:50–07:00 AEST when demand crossed 7,415 MW and prices jumped from $10.45/MWh to $65.51/MWh in a single interval — a clear illustration of the supply stack inflection point at that demand level on a Sunday.

The overnight negative pricing episode, running from approximately 21:40 AEST through to 05:00 AEST and reaching as low as -$25.50/MWh, aligned directly with demand falling below 6,000 MW and bottoming near 3,494 MW. This is consistent with surplus baseload and variable generation against minimal overnight load on a weekend. Carbon intensity tracked the demand curve in reverse — intensity dropped to around 0.69 tCO2/MWh at the overnight trough as the generation mix shifted, before rising back to 0.79 tCO2/MWh as demand climbed and the mix responded. Renewable penetration, at 10.21% at the latest interval, reflects the April evening profile with solar output minimal at 134 MW and wind contributing 284 MW.

Looking ahead, forecast pricing for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC target) sits in the $65–$66/MWh range per the most recent dispatch forecasts, with earlier forecasts through the day having pointed to $79–$98/MWh before being revised lower as actual conditions became clearer. The convergence of latest forecasts around $65–$66/MWh suggests the market is pricing today's evening demand at levels consistent with the current $64.89/MWh spot — no material escalation is anticipated for the next trading period. Traders should note that today is Monday 13 April, a public holiday (Easter Monday) in NSW, which suppresses commercial and industrial demand relative to a typical Monday and explains the weekend-like demand profile and price behaviour observed across the full 24-hour window. Demand is expected to continue its gradual evening ramp from the current 7,324 MW, but the holiday load profile limits the likelihood of a sharp secondary peak.