Commodity Demand — NSW1: Saturday 11 April 2026
NSW spot price sits at $71.40/MWh with demand at 6,339 MW as of 6:30 AEST this Sunday morning. Today's demand profile has already traced its characteristic Sunday shape: a deep overnight trough bottoming near 4,100 MW around 11:00–12:00 AEST, during which prices fell consistently negative — reaching as low as -$8.49/MWh — before demand climbed sharply through the morning ramp. That ramp from roughly 4,400 MW at 11:30 AEST to over 8,400 MW by 19:00 AEST drove prices firmly into the $70–$92/MWh band, with isolated touches of $99.90/MWh at the 22:40 AEST interval. The price-to-demand relationship across today's session is clear: every sustained move above 7,500 MW has produced prices above $70/MWh, while demand below 6,000 MW consistently cleared at or below zero.
Current demand at 6,339 MW places NSW on the descending limb of today's daily peak, having rolled off the 8,400 MW high reached around 19:00 AEST. Prices have softened accordingly from the mid-$70s to $80s seen during the demand peak, settling at $71.40/MWh. The generation mix supporting this level comprises 4,329 MW from black coal, 437 MW wind, and 198 MW hydro, with gas and solar contributing zero at this interval. Carbon intensity is 0.767 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 12.8% of the mix — consistent with the post-sunset, wind-light conditions seen across the evening.
Forward forecasts for the next near-term intervals point to a material price softening. The most recent AEMO pre-dispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) cluster around $57–$59/MWh, falling further toward zero and then deeply negative through the 08:30–10:30 AEST window (22:30–00:30 UTC), where load window data shows consensus forecast prices ranging from -$3/MWh to -$26/MWh. This aligns directly with the expected overnight demand decline: as Sunday demand retreats below 5,500 MW and then toward the 4,000–4,500 MW trough in the early hours of Monday morning, surplus baseload generation is forecast to push prices negative again, replicating the pattern observed in last night's session.
The key demand-side risk for today's remaining periods is limited. Market notices are exclusively focused on Tasmanian network contingency reclassifications linked to lightning activity — none carry direct demand or supply implications for NSW. The Sunday low-demand trough is the dominant pricing driver from here; traders with flexible load have a clear window to capture negative or near-zero prices between approximately 09:00 and 14:00 AEST, before the Monday morning demand ramp reasserts upward price pressure.