commodity demand nsw — NSW1

NSW spot price sits at **$186.34/MWh** with demand at **7,219 MW** as of 6:35 AM AEST — a level that is driving prices nearly double what cleared through much of the afternoon and early evening period. The demand-price relationship across today's profile has been stark: as demand troughed around 5,045–5,400 MW between 11:00 AM and 1:30 PM AEST, prices repeatedly touched negative or near-zero territory, with several intervals clearing below -$3/MWh. The morning ramp has reversed that entirely, with demand climbing from that overnight trough through the 6,000 MW range from around 2:00 PM AEST, before accelerating sharply after 6:00 PM AEST as residential and commercial evening load built. The steepest price response came as demand crossed the 7,000 MW threshold: from 6:00 AM AEST prices jumped from the low $160s to a peak of $237.86/MWh at 6:10 AM AEST before settling back to the current $186/MWh range — a 45% price spike across roughly 10 minutes of dispatch.

The day's demand peak of approximately **9,248 MW** occurred around 8:05 AM AEST (18:05 UTC), coinciding with the prolonged price band of $137–$168/MWh that held for the bulk of the business day from 7:00 AM through to mid-afternoon AEST. That sustained elevated demand above 9,000 MW through the morning kept the market priced well above $130/MWh for nearly three hours, with supply margins tight enough that several dispatch intervals cleared above $160/MWh. The generation mix at the most recent read shows black coal at **5,572 MW**, hydro at **1,037 MW**, gas CCGT at **427 MW**, and wind and solar contributing a combined **38 MW** — consistent with the carbon intensity data showing renewable penetration at just 6.82% as solar output drops away in the evening period.

Forward forecasts for the 7:00 AM and 7:30 AM AEST half-hour intervals (21:00 and 21:30 UTC) point to prices stepping down from current levels — the most recent dispatch forecasts indicate $168/MWh at 7:00 AM AEST and $98/MWh by 7:30 AM AEST. This reflects the expected demand rolloff as the morning peak passes and commercial load begins to ease before the mid-morning solar build suppresses net demand further. Load window data confirms that prices through the 8:30 AM–11:30 AM AEST window (22:00–01:30 UTC) are forecast to fall sharply into the $7–$57/MWh range, repeating the pattern seen at equivalent times on Tuesday. The grid stress score of **78.9** from AEMO's scoring system corroborates that current conditions represent a meaningful supply tightness relative to today's broader profile, though no reserve notices or LOR conditions are active for NSW at this time.