commodity demand sa — SA1

South Australia's spot price sits at $49.04/MWh at 06:00 AEST with demand at 1,222.83 MW — a marked easing from the day's peak of around 1,547 MW reached during the 18:45–19:00 AEST window. The price-demand relationship today has been pronounced: as demand climbed from an overnight trough near 589 MW (around 12:50 AEST) through the morning ramp, prices escalated sharply into the $123–$301/MWh range between 14:00 and 22:00 AEST, with isolated spikes to $360.55/MWh at 21:55 AEST. The current 1,222 MW demand level sits comfortably in a zone where wind generation at 441 MW and gas CCGT at 41 MW are sufficient to keep prices subdued, with grid carbon intensity now at 0.042 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration at 91.43%.

Today's demand trajectory is directly shaping near-term price expectations. AEMO forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) are clustered around $57/MWh, with the 07:30 AEST interval forecast dropping to the $32–$39/MWh range as demand continues to ease into the overnight trough. Load window data reinforces this: prices across the 08:00–10:00 AEST windows (22:00–00:00 UTC) are forecast near zero and into negative territory, with some intervals projecting as low as -$76.87/MWh around 14:30 AEST. This overnight negative-price outlook reflects the intersection of falling demand and sustained wind output — conditions where flexible loads and batteries have strong incentive to consume.

The key operational caveat for today is an active AEMO market intervention notice flagging a foreseeable voltage intervention in SA from 09:30 AEST, with AEMO requiring sufficient market response by 07:30 AEST or it will issue a direction. This follows a pattern from overnight, where AEMO directed AGL's Barker Inlet PS and Origin's Quarantine PS Unit 5 to synchronise units for voltage control — interventions subsequently cancelled by 15:10 AEST. The voltage management requirement means synchronous generation may need to remain online irrespective of market price signals, which can distort the price-demand relationship during the morning ramp and suppress the depth of negative prices that the forecast wind surplus would otherwise produce. Traders and demand-side managers with flexible load should monitor the 07:30 AEST market response deadline closely.