commodity demand nsw — NSW1

NSW spot price sits at $65.01/MWh with demand at 6,224 MW as of 06:30 AEST, a notable step down from the morning peak that pushed demand to 7,779 MW and prices to $88.89/MWh around 18:45–18:50 AEST. The price-demand relationship across today's trading has been tight: the morning ramp from sub-5,000 MW overnight lows drove prices from near-zero and negative territory into the high $70s–$80s as demand crossed 7,000 MW, with brief spikes to $98–$99/MWh in the 24:45–02:00 AEST window when demand sat in the 6,390–6,543 MW range and supply margins tightened. The afternoon period (roughly 00:45–02:30 AEST) produced the highest sustained price pressure, with $98–$100/MWh prints coinciding with demand around 6,100–6,500 MW — a tighter supply stack at that load level than during the larger morning demand peak, suggesting generator availability or constraint-driven scarcity rather than pure volume.

Overnight, demand troughed near 4,434 MW around 13:30 AEST, when prices collapsed to near-zero and briefly negative — consistent with baseload surplus at low load. The morning ramp from 15:00 AEST (6,150 MW) to peak was rapid, covering roughly 1,600 MW in under two hours, and the price response was proportional: each 200–300 MW increment drove prices up 10–15 $/MWh once the 6,400 MW threshold was breached. Demand is now tracking back through 6,200 MW on the post-peak descent.

Forward forecasts for the next few hours point to prices easing toward $37–$43/MWh by 07:30 AEST as demand continues its overnight decline, with the 08:00–09:00 AEST window (22:00–23:00 UTC) forecast at $11–$36/MWh — consistent with demand dropping back toward the 5,500–6,000 MW range typical of the post-10pm period on a Monday. The 16:30 AEST (06:30 UTC) forecast of $53.20/MWh marks the upper end of near-term projections, flagging that today's morning ramp will again be the primary price risk window. There are no NSW-specific market notices driving abnormal demand-side signals today; the active intervention notices are confined to the SA region for voltage management, though the Larcom Creek–Calliope River 275 kV outage in Queensland carries a constraint set affecting the NSW–QLD interconnector (NSW1-QLD1), which could influence import/export flows and marginal pricing during periods of interstate demand pressure.

Traders watching the morning ramp should note that $77–$82/MWh appears to be the current market-clearing band when NSW demand is in the 7,000–7,500 MW range, based on today's sustained price prints in that zone. Any demand outcome above 7,500 MW — possible if temperatures lift through the business day — risks a return to the $88–$99/MWh range seen at today's true peak.