Commodity Demand — NSW1: Friday 3 April 2026
NSW spot price sits at $64.89/MWh with demand at 6,720 MW as of 06:30 AEST. That demand level is consistent with the post-evening-peak plateau that has characterised the last two hours of trading, with prices holding in a narrow $57–$65/MWh band since around 03:30 AEST. The price-demand relationship today has been textbook: the morning peak between 17:00–19:00 AEST drove demand from a overnight trough near 5,130 MW up to a daily high of 8,098 MW at 19:10 AEST, with spot prices tracking that ramp closely — sustaining $65–$77/MWh through the 17:00–19:00 AEST window. As demand retreated from that peak, prices followed with it, though not linearly; several intervals between 22:00–02:00 AEST saw prices spike above $79–$104/MWh on tight dispatch conditions despite demand sitting below 5,500 MW, indicating marginal unit behaviour independent of aggregate demand.
The overnight trough bottomed at 5,131 MW around 12:45 AEST (02:45 UTC) with prices as low as $4.54/MWh in isolated intervals, reflecting surplus conditions. Demand has since climbed 1,590 MW from that trough as Saturday morning load builds. Today being a Saturday, the demand trajectory differs from weekday shape — expect a shallower morning ramp and a lower daytime plateau, typically 500–1,000 MW below weekday equivalents at this time of year. The forecast RRP for the next settlement interval (07:00 AEST, 21:00 UTC) sits at $57.06/MWh, consistent with the current mild-demand, well-supplied conditions.
The load window data points to prices easing further through the balance of the overnight period, with forecast prices of $37.89–$46/MWh across the 08:00–15:00 AEST window — well below current spot. The Saturday demand profile means no aggressive morning business ramp, and April's mild autumn temperatures reduce residential cooling load, both of which compress the price ceiling for daytime trading. The notable exception to watch is the early morning period: several AEMO market notices flag prices for the 05:15–06:10 AEST intervals as subject to Manifestly Incorrect Inputs review under NER 3.9.2B, with the 05:50 AEST interval already confirmed unchanged. Traders should treat any price signals in those specific intervals with caution until AEMO resolves the outstanding reviews, particularly for the 06:00 and 06:10 AEST intervals which remain under active review.
The NSW-to-VIC negative settlement residue constraint (NRM_NSW1_VIC1) ceased operating at 15:00 AEST yesterday, removing an interconnector flow restriction that had been contributing to pricing friction. With that constraint lifted, VIC export capacity is fully available to assist NSW supply during any demand uptick today, providing an additional buffer against price spikes if Saturday load surprises to the upside.