Interconnector Watch

VIC1-NSW1 (Heywood's northern cousin, the VIC–NSW interconnector) is the dominant story at 06:30 AEST: it is carrying 1,046 MW northbound from Victoria into New South Wales and is binding hard at its export limit. That constraint is directly reflected in the $56.56/MWh price spread between NSW1 ($65.51/MWh) and VIC1 ($8.95/MWh) — Victoria is saturated with low-cost generation that cannot fully clear into New South Wales, suppressing VIC1 prices while NSW1 remains elevated. QNI (NSW1–QLD1) is simultaneously binding at its import limit of 608 MW, with flow running 608 MW southbound from Queensland into New South Wales. Queensland sits at $56.40/MWh, close to NSW1, which is consistent with QNI being constrained: additional southward capacity would likely narrow that spread further, but the interconnector has no headroom remaining on the import side.

On the South Australian links, Heywood (V-SA) is flowing 67 MW westbound from Victoria into SA1 against an import limit of nearly 499 MW — well under capacity and non-binding. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is binding at both its import and export limits at –155.54 MW, meaning it is locked at full westbound transfer from Victoria into South Australia. Despite these flows, SA1 ($8.65/MWh) and VIC1 ($8.95/MWh) are essentially at price parity, so Murraylink's binding status reflects a physical constraint rather than a significant arbitrage opportunity — the two regions are near equilibrium. Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is carrying 99.73 MW westbound from Tasmania into Victoria, sitting at its export limit of –99.73 MW, though AEMO does not flag it as binding. Tasmania is the highest-priced NEM region at $83.41/MWh against VIC1's $8.95/MWh — a $74.46/MWh gap — but Basslink capacity in the Tasmanian-export direction is constrained, limiting the arbitrage Tasmania could otherwise capture. The Directlink (N-Q-MNSP1) is flowing 49 MW southbound from Queensland into New South Wales at roughly 40% of its import capacity and is non-binding.

No constraint market notices are active across the NEM at this interval. The two binding interconnectors — VIC–NSW and Murraylink — are the principal price-shaping mechanisms this morning, with VIC1's low wholesale price unable to fully equilibrate northward or westward due to network limits.