commodity demand sa — SA1
South Australia's spot price sits at $8.65/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1,236 MW — a level that, across today's trading, has consistently produced near-floor pricing. The price-demand relationship is stark in the history: when demand ran above 1,550 MW through the early evening hours, prices cleared between $138/MWh and $257/MWh. As demand stepped down through the overnight trough — bottoming near 336 MW around 02:55 UTC — the market moved to sustained negative pricing, with intervals clearing as low as -$8.50/MWh. The current 1,236 MW demand level sits well below the threshold where thermal capacity is needed to set price, and the 699 MW of wind output alongside 42.69 MW of gas CCGT is covering load with surplus, confirmed by the 94.25% renewable share and 0.0282 tCO2/MWh carbon intensity.
Today's demand trajectory is the central price driver. The morning ramp is underway — demand has recovered from the overnight floor and is now building toward the working-day load. Based on the pattern observed in today's data, demand will likely approach the 1,500–1,600 MW range during the morning peak (roughly 08:00–10:00 AEST), which is where prices historically settled in the $60–$90/MWh band. The most recent AEMO forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (target time 21:00 UTC) are pointing to $27.79/MWh, a significant step up from current spot but well below the morning peak levels seen earlier — suggesting the market anticipates demand build but with adequate supply coverage.
A material operational flag: AEMO has issued a large number of active "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering intervals between 04:30 and 06:30 AEST today. One interval — 05:10 AEST — has already been reviewed and confirmed unchanged. Traders with exposure to those intervals should monitor for potential price revisions; the volume of notices across a continuous two-hour window is unusually high and warrants close attention. The affected intervals correspond to the pre-dawn period when demand was in the 400–650 MW range and negative prices were clearing widely.
The afternoon demand shape on a Friday in early autumn typically produces a secondary peak in the 1,300–1,400 MW range around 17:00–19:00 AEST before the evening ramp. Today's forecast load windows are projecting deep negative prices through the 08:00–17:00 UTC period (18:00–03:00 AEST), consistent with wind generation maintaining strong output against low-to-moderate demand. The key price risk for today sits in the 07:00–09:00 AEST morning ramp window, where demand build intersects with potential wind variability — the interval most likely to produce the day's price peak before solar irradiance and midday demand easing compress prices back below $50/MWh.