commodity demand nsw — NSW1

NSW spot price sits at $65.51/MWh with total demand at 6,714 MW as of 06:30 AEST — a moderate overnight load level that reflects the post-evening-peak trough typical of early Friday mornings. The price-demand relationship across the past 24 hours is pronounced: when demand climbed to its intraday peak above 9,050 MW around 17:40–18:15 AEST, prices held in the $92–$97/MWh band, while the overnight demand trough near 5,400–5,550 MW compressed prices to the high $30s. The current $65.51/MWh price is consistent with demand sitting well below the morning ramp inflection point, with the generation stack not yet under meaningful pressure.

The morning demand build is already under way. Demand has risen from roughly 5,400 MW at the overnight nadir to 6,714 MW now, with prices tracking upward in step. The most recent forecast for the 07:00 AEST interval (target time 21:00 UTC) puts the RRP at approximately $64/MWh, consistent with a gradual ramp rather than a sharp spike. Forecasts for the 07:30 AEST window point to $57/MWh, suggesting the market anticipates demand plateauing rather than accelerating — a Friday shoulder-day pattern with reduced commercial and industrial load compared to mid-week peaks.

A significant market notice concern applies this morning: AEMO has flagged prices across intervals from approximately 04:30 through 06:30 AEST as subject to review under NER Clause 3.9.2B for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs, with over 25 active review notices still outstanding. Several earlier intervals (02:55, 03:15, 03:40, 05:10 AEST) have been confirmed unchanged. Traders holding positions in the flagged intervals — particularly the 05:30–06:30 AEST block — should note that final settlement prices remain subject to revision. The confirmed intervals provide some confidence that AEMO's reviews are not resulting in price changes, but the volume of outstanding notices warrants monitoring through the morning.

The day's price trajectory hinges on whether the morning demand ramp reaches the 8,500–9,000 MW range that drove $88–$97/MWh pricing during Thursday's business hours. With today being Friday and demand currently tracking below Thursday's equivalent periods, the balance of evidence points to a softer morning peak, with prices likely holding in the $65–$80/MWh corridor through the business day before easing into the afternoon as commercial load recedes.