commodity demand nsw — NSW1

NSW spot price sits at $191.08/MWh with demand at 8,043 MW as of 06:30 AEST — a sharp jump from the $154.99/MWh recorded at 05:15 AEST as demand crossed 8,000 MW and continued climbing. The price-demand relationship through the morning ramp is unambiguous: demand bottomed near 4,994 MW overnight with prices touching sub-$1/MWh, then tracked prices upward in near-lockstep as the morning ramp added roughly 3,050 MW between 02:30 and 06:30 AEST. The peak demand recorded in the history sits at 9,046 MW (05:45 AEST), where prices held in the $132–$138/MWh band — today's price spike to $235.26/MWh at 06:25 AEST occurred on demand of only 8,070 MW, indicating dispatch stack tightness rather than a raw demand record.

The morning ramp is the critical price driver today. Demand accelerated from ~6,435 MW at 15:00 AEST to 8,043 MW at 06:30 AEST — a 1,600 MW uplift in 90 minutes — and prices responded by moving from $57/MWh into the $130–$191/MWh range. The prior evening peak (around 17:45 AEST, ~9,046 MW) saw materially lower prices in the $132–$138/MWh band, which means today's pre-dawn price spike reflects a supply-side constraint or rebid event rather than demand pressure alone. AEMO has issued manifestly incorrect inputs reviews under NER clause 3.9.2B for every interval from 03:00 through 06:30 AEST — a sustained run of 28+ market notices — signalling that dispatch inputs across the early morning are under scrutiny and that settled prices for those intervals remain subject to revision.

The most recent PASA-aligned forecast price for the next half-hour (07:00 AEST) sits at $174.46/MWh, down from the current $191.08/MWh, consistent with demand beginning to plateau after the morning ramp peak. Load windows indicate prices are expected to fall sharply into the $55–$65/MWh range from 08:00 AEST as morning demand eases — demand typically retreats 1,500–2,000 MW through the mid-morning trough before the evening residential ramp from approximately 17:00 AEST. Traders holding short positions into the 07:00–08:00 AEST window should note that forecast prices remain elevated relative to the morning's stable $104–$138/MWh trading band, and the active AEMO price reviews introduce settlement risk on any position referencing intervals 03:00–06:30 AEST.