commodity demand sa — SA1

South Australia's spot price sits at $41.94/MWh at 07:05 AEST with demand at 1,599 MW and climbing. The evening ramp is firmly underway — demand has risen roughly 200 MW over the past 35 minutes from the post-sunset trough near 1,390 MW, and price has tracked it upward in near-lockstep, moving from $0/MWh at 05:00 AEST to the current level. The most recent AEMO forecast targets $46.46/MWh for the 07:30 AEST half-hour, consistent with demand continuing to build through the evening peak. The generation mix at 07:00 AEST is wind at 180 MW and gas CCGT at 118 MW, with solar output at zero and OCGT offline, meaning any incremental demand from here draws on dispatchable gas or interconnector flows — both of which price higher than the wind floor.

The day's price profile has been sharply bimodal. Overnight demand bottomed at around 475–540 MW between 12:30–13:30 AEST, driving spot prices to extreme negative territory — reaching as low as −$189/MWh during the 12:35–13:40 AEST window — before demand recovered through the afternoon. The solar generation period (roughly 21:00–03:00 AEST) suppressed net demand sufficiently to sustain sub-zero prices across much of the midday band, with prices hugging −$3 to −$4/MWh throughout the 18:00–02:00 AEST period as demand sat in the 1,400–1,600 MW range but supply remained long. The transition back to positive pricing occurred sharply at 04:35 AEST (18:35 UTC) as solar output wound back, with prices jumping to $29/MWh in a single interval.

The near-term price trajectory is upward but measured. The most recent AEMO pre-dispatch forecasts show $46.46/MWh at the next half-hour, $45.33/MWh at 08:00 AEST, then softening toward $31.31/MWh by 08:30 AEST — suggesting the market does not anticipate a sustained price spike but does expect the demand-driven evening ramp to keep prices in the $30–$50/MWh range for the next 60–90 minutes before easing. The 07:30 AEST morning peak of $82/MWh seen in this morning's data, when demand briefly hit 1,860 MW, sets the upper bound traders should have in mind if demand overshoots forecast or wind output softens.

Traders and demand-side managers should note that AEMO has issued a significant volume of active "Prices Subject to Review" market notices covering intervals from approximately 02:45 AEST through 07:10 AEST this morning, citing potential Manifestly Incorrect Inputs under NER clause 3.9.2B. The one confirmed notice (04:45 AEST interval) resulted in prices remaining unchanged, but the breadth of the review — spanning the deep negative and early morning ramp intervals — warrants monitoring. Settled prices across those intervals may yet be revised, which has direct implications for any positions marked against current published spot values.