commodity demand nsw — NSW1

NSW spot sits at $78.21/MWh with demand at 8,066 MW as of 06:35 AEST, tracking the evening demand build that began around 05:00 AEST from an overnight trough near 5,200 MW. The demand trajectory through the price history is a textbook weekday ramp — prices compressed to near-floor levels ($1–$11/MWh) between midnight and 02:00 AEST when demand sat below 6,000 MW, then climbed in lockstep with load through the morning peak. The daily high of $92.21/MWh coincided with demand touching 8,948 MW at 18:20 AEST, confirming a tight correlation between load above ~8,800 MW and prices breaching $90/MWh.

The most recent forecast for the next settlement period (07:00 AEST) is $84.79/MWh, a step up from the current $78.21/MWh, consistent with demand continuing to build into the morning commercial peak. Earlier in the day, pre-dawn forecasts for this interval were running at $98.14/MWh before being revised down to the $84–$89/MWh range as actual conditions became clearer — indicating the market has priced out some upside risk but still anticipates firmer conditions ahead. Demand is currently 8,066 MW and rising; if it replicates the 8,800–8,950 MW range seen at this morning's prior peak, prices in the $85–$93/MWh band are well within reach.

A significant market notice issue warrants attention: AEMO has flagged prices for a large block of early-morning intervals today (03:25 through 06:30 AEST) as subject to review under NER clause 3.9.2B for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs. The 04:45 AEST interval has already been confirmed unchanged, but the remaining intervals spanning the pre-dawn demand ramp remain under active review. Traders with positions referencing those settlement intervals should treat those prices as provisional until AEMO issues confirmation or revision notices. The volume of consecutive reviews — over 30 active notices covering roughly three hours of dispatch — is unusual and suggests a systemic input data issue during the early-morning period rather than isolated dispatch events.