Interconnector Watch

Interconnector dynamics at 07:30 AEST are defined by two binding links that are directly shaping the NEM's substantial price spread — from $11/MWh in Victoria through to $101/MWh in NSW. VIC1-NSW1 (Heywood's northern counterpart, the VIC-NSW interconnector) is carrying 956.99 MW northward into NSW and is binding at its export limit, meaning Victoria's surplus generation cannot push further into the higher-priced NSW market. This constraint is the primary mechanism sustaining the $90/MWh price differential between the two regions: Victoria clears at $11/MWh while NSW sits at $101/MWh, a spread that would compress materially if the interconnector had headroom. QNI is also binding, with -339.68 MW flowing from NSW into QLD — at both its import and export limits simultaneously — effectively capping the volume of NSW energy that can reach Queensland, where price sits at $96.66/MWh.

Heywood (V-SA) is carrying 70.03 MW westward into South Australia and is at its export limit but not flagged as binding in the dispatch solution, with SA clearing at $48.05/MWh against Victoria's $11/MWh. The $37/MWh spread indicates some constraint on the Heywood path beyond the raw flow figure, or that SA's marginal plant is setting price independently of Victorian dispatch. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is exporting 83.51 MW into SA from Victoria and is also at its export limit, though not binding — combined, the two SA-VIC links are moving roughly 153 MW into SA against a 1,574 MW demand base.

Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is at zero flow with an export limit of 125 MW available from Tasmania to Victoria, and is not binding. Tasmania clears at $97.19/MWh while Victoria is at $11/MWh, making the zero-flow position on Basslink notable — with no import limit available, the link appears unable to take Tasmanian energy into Victoria under current dispatch, which likely reflects network or operational constraints on the Tasmanian side rather than a commercial decision. Marinus Link (N-Q-MNSP1) is carrying -17 MW (flowing from QLD toward NSW direction per convention) and is not binding, well within its -97.6 MW import capacity. No constraint notices are active across the NEM at this interval. The two binding interconnectors — VIC-NSW and QNI — are the pivotal market drivers for the morning, locking in the NSW and QLD price premium above the Victorian floor.