commodity demand sa — SA1

South Australia's spot price sits at $48.05/MWh with demand at 1,574 MW as of 06:30 AEST — a marked softening from the morning peak, which saw demand climb to 1,758 MW at 08:30 AEST and prices push repeatedly above $125/MWh, with isolated spikes to $300.75/MWh at 09:50 AEST and $262/MWh at 09:30 AEST. That demand-price relationship through the morning was pronounced: the 500 MW lift from the overnight trough (~500 MW at 03:30 AEST) to the 1,758 MW peak drove sustained prices in the $100–$150/MWh band, with the upper spikes likely reflecting tight supply margins or dispatch-side constraints as gas CCGT output (42 MW) remained minimal and wind (711 MW) carried the bulk of served load.

Demand has been falling steadily since the 08:30 AEST peak, tracking through the 1,500s MW range in the early afternoon before settling at the current 1,574 MW. This demand retreat has directly driven price compression — the $48.05/MWh current price compares to a $125/MWh floor that persisted for much of the 07:00–11:30 AEST window. The near-term forecast points to further softening, with AEMO's latest pre-dispatch forecast pricing the 07:00 AEST interval (31 March) at $41.70/MWh, down from an earlier day-ahead forecast of $75.89/MWh issued at 12:32 AEST. Load window data reinforces this: forecast prices from 08:00 AEST (31 March) are near zero or negative, consistent with the overnight demand trough where SA regularly drops below 600 MW and wind generation maintains a surplus.

Traders should note that AEMO has issued a significant number of "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER clause 3.9.2B covering intervals from 03:10 through 06:15 AEST today (31 March), with the 05:50 AEST interval already confirmed unchanged. These reviews span the pre-dawn low-demand period when prices were negative or near zero, and while confirmed intervals to date have held, any retrospective revision to those intervals would affect settlement for participants with exposure in that window. The volume of active review notices is above typical and warrants monitoring through to final confirmation.