commodity demand nsw — NSW1

NSW spot price sits at $101/MWh with demand at 8,169 MW as of 06:30 AEST, continuing an evening ramp that has driven prices above the $100/MWh threshold for the past 30 minutes. The price-demand relationship across today's session is tight: demand troughed near 5,100 MW in the early hours of this morning (around 12:00–13:00 AEST overnight) when prices repeatedly touched the market floor at $0.85/MWh, then climbed steadily through the morning peak to 8,743 MW at 18:30 AEST, where prices sustained $104–$123/MWh for nearly two hours. The correlation is direct and consistent — every sustained move above 8,500 MW has produced prices above $100/MWh, and the current 8,169 MW level sits in that sensitive band where marginal generation is priced at or above triple digits.

Today's demand profile followed the expected autumn weekday shape: a sharp morning ramp from around 5,100 MW at 11:00 AEST to 8,743 MW by 18:30 AEST, a midday trough to around 7,200 MW between 23:00–01:00 AEST (early afternoon local), then a secondary evening climb that is now underway. The most price-volatile period was the 07:00–09:30 AEST window, where demand between 8,300–8,600 MW produced prices ranging from $97 to $133/MWh, including a spike to $133/MWh at 17:55 AEST. That volatility reflects thin spare capacity margins when demand sits above 8,500 MW — the grid stress score of 63.6 corroborates a system operating with limited headroom at those demand levels.

The forward price outlook points lower from here. The most recent AEMO pre-dispatch forecast (issued 06:31 AEST) puts the 07:00 AEST interval at $93.97/MWh, consistent with demand easing from the current 8,169 MW as the evening peak subsides. The load window data reinforces this — the 08:00 AEST (22:00 UTC) period is forecast at $11.30/MWh, with the 09:00 AEST window showing negative prices in the range of -$2.50 to -$3.20/MWh as overnight demand drops toward 6,000–6,500 MW. Demand-side managers and flexible industrial loads should note the next low-price window opens in approximately 90 minutes and extends through the early morning hours.

Traders should note that AEMO has issued a substantial run of "Prices Subject to Review" notices for intervals between 03:30 and 06:15 AEST today under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs). Several earlier intervals have since been confirmed unchanged, but intervals from 05:20 through 06:15 AEST remain under active review. This creates settlement uncertainty for positions covering the pre-dawn price spikes in the $37–$58/MWh range during the 03:00–06:00 AEST period. Participants with exposure to those intervals should monitor AEMO notices for confirmation or revision before end-of-day settlement.