Interconnector Watch

Queensland is the cheapest region on the NEM at 66.3 $/MWh and is exporting hard to NSW via QNI, with flows sitting at -705.7 MW — exactly at the interconnector's import limit of -705.7 MW. QNI is binding right now, meaning the constraint is actively capping how much cheap Queensland generation can reach NSW. That binding condition explains the 52.55 $/MWh price spread between QLD1 (66.3 $/MWh) and NSW1 (118.85 $/MWh); without the constraint, NSW prices would be pulled lower by Queensland's surplus. Traders should note the export limit on QNI is only 66.34 MW in the northward direction, so there is no relief valve for NSW to push back into Queensland either.

Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is also binding, with flows at 45 MW from Victoria to South Australia against an export limit of 125 MW — wait, at 45 MW it is not at its export cap, but the import limit of -35 MW confirms the interconnector is constrained in the reverse direction. SA1 is the most expensive region at 131.54 $/MWh versus VIC1 at 119.16 $/MWh, a spread of 12.38 $/MWh. Heywood (V-SA) is carrying the heavier load into SA at 474.05 MW, well within its 626.72 MW export limit and not binding, which is absorbing most of the eastward-to-SA energy task. Combined, Heywood and Murraylink are moving roughly 519 MW into South Australia, keeping its price premium contained relative to what it would be without that support.

VIC-NSW is flowing 256.63 MW southward from NSW into Victoria, utilising 68.7% of its import capacity (-373.55 MW limit) and is not binding. This southward flow is consistent with NSW and VIC prices sitting nearly flat at 118.85 and 119.16 $/MWh respectively — the interconnector is equilibrating those two regions effectively. Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is at zero flow with Tasmania priced at 107.19 $/MWh, below both VIC and NSW, which is an unusual condition; zero flow on Basslink suggests a scheduled outage or dispatch instruction has halted transfer, otherwise one would expect northward flows given Tasmania's price advantage. The N-Q-MNSP1 interconnector (Directlink) is binding at -193 MW against its import limit of -201.6 MW, flowing northward into Queensland, though given QLD's already low price this flow is having minimal downward price impact and is near capacity in that direction.

No constraint notices are active in the current data set, but the binding conditions on QNI and N-Q-MNSP1 are the dominant market dynamics to watch through the morning. Any relaxation of the QNI binding constraint — through a change in Queensland dispatch or a network condition update — would be the single largest price-moving event for NSW today, with a potential 50+ $/MWh downside if flows freed up materially.