commodity demand nsw — NSW1
NSW spot price sits at $118.85/MWh with demand at 8,068.9 MW as of 06:30 AEST — the clearest demonstration of the evening peak demand-price relationship in today's data. The price trajectory over the past two hours tells the story directly: as demand climbed from 7,625.6 MW at 06:00 AEST ($101.72/MWh) through to the current 8,068.9 MW, price has tracked upward through $104.89, $117.35 and now $118.85/MWh, confirming the market is operating on the steep portion of the supply stack where each additional 100 MW of demand commands materially higher prices. Black coal dominates the dispatch stack at 5,894.5 MW, with hydro contributing 422.7 MW and wind and solar a combined 111.7 MW — renewables supply just 8.31% of current load, leaving thermal plant as the marginal price-setter.
The contrast with the overnight trough is stark. Demand bottomed near 3,760–3,810 MW between 11:00–12:00 AEST, when spot prices sat in sustained negative territory, ranging from -$8.15/MWh to -$2.50/MWh. That 4,300 MW swing from overnight minimum to current evening demand level represents a price move of over $127/MWh, underlining how thin the marginal supply curve is at high load. The morning ramp from ~4,900 MW at 15:00 AEST to above 8,000 MW by 18:30 AEST drove the bulk of today's price escalation, with the transition through $80–$100/MWh occurring around 05:45–06:10 AEST as load crossed the 7,500–7,900 MW band.
Forward forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval cluster in the $80–$83/MWh range, implying the market expects modest demand easing from the current peak. That is consistent with the typical post-dinner load rolloff, where residential demand softens and industrial load stabilises. Traders should note that 26 AEMO market notices are active flagging prices for intervals from 05:00 through 06:30 AEST as subject to review under NER clause 3.9.2B for manifestly incorrect inputs — primarily spanning the morning ramp window. If those reviews result in price revisions, settlement costs for that ramp period could shift materially, and positions settled against those intervals carry revision risk until AEMO confirms final outcomes.