commodity demand sa — SA1

South Australia sits at 1,252 MW with a spot price of $63.33/MWh at 06:30 AEST, a relatively contained Sunday morning reading that reflects the tail end of overnight demand recovery. The price-demand relationship across today's data is clear: when demand peaked near 1,520 MW through the 19:15–19:30 AEST window, prices held above $110/MWh consistently, while the overnight trough — demand falling to a low of around 667 MW at 12:35 AEST — drove prices deep into negative territory, reaching -$20/MWh at the 10:00 AEST mark. That inverse is textbook SA: a small, wind-heavy grid where even modest demand reductions expose renewable oversupply, flipping the price sign entirely.

The morning ramp is now underway. Demand has climbed from roughly 760 MW at midnight to 1,252 MW currently, and prices have tracked upward accordingly, settling into the $59–$67/MWh band across the past two hours as gas CCGT (100 MW) and wind (544 MW) cover the load mix at 84.45% renewable penetration and 0.0762 tCO2/MWh carbon intensity. Solar is contributing nothing at this hour, which is why gas is still in the stack — that changes materially once rooftop and utility solar ramps from around 08:00 AEST onward. That solar injection is what tends to push SA prices down sharply mid-morning on a clear-sky day, and with 0% cloud cover recorded, today is set up for exactly that dynamic.

The forecast demand trajectory points to a familiar Sunday shape: a mid-morning dip driven by solar suppressing net demand, a softer midday trough, then a late-afternoon rebuild as solar fades. Load window data confirms the market is pricing this correctly — forecast prices for the 07:30–08:30 AEST window (21:30–22:30 UTC) sit in the $10–$14/MWh range, dropping to negative territory by 08:00–09:00 AEST as solar peaks and net demand collapses. The deepest negative windows cluster around -$10/MWh in the 09:00 AEST hour, consistent with SA's well-documented midday surplus problem on sunny, windy Sundays.

Traders and demand-side participants should note two complicating factors. First, AEMO has issued a significant volume of "Prices Subject to Review" market notices covering today's early morning intervals (03:00–06:30 AEST) under Clause 3.9.2B for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs — the 04:10 AEST interval has already been confirmed unchanged, but the bulk remain active. Settlement risk on those intervals is non-trivial. Second, the evening demand rebuild — historically the price recovery point after a solar-driven trough — will be the session to watch. If demand tracks back above 1,400 MW post-18:00 AEST with solar gone and wind at current output levels, gas peakers re-enter the stack and prices move back into the $100–$150/MWh range, consistent with what the price history shows from the comparable period in prior days.