Commodity Demand — NSW1: Saturday 28 March 2026
NSW spot price sits at $65.51/MWh with demand at 6,554 MW — well below the daytime peak of around 7,970 MW reached during the morning period. This current demand level represents a late-evening wind-down, and the price reflects it: the $65.51/MWh outcome is broadly consistent with the $65–$67/MWh band that forecasts have been anchoring around for the coming hours. The price-demand relationship through today has been tight — demand above 7,800 MW correlated with prices consistently in the $72–$86/MWh range, while the sub-6,600 MW levels seen in the overnight trough drove prices deeply negative, bottoming below -$10/MWh around 11:00–11:30 AEST.
The overnight demand trough is the dominant pricing story for the next several hours. Load windows point to prices dropping back into negative territory from approximately 06:30–07:30 AEST, with forecast prices between -$3/MWh and -$8/MWh as demand falls toward the 3,800–4,200 MW range typical of Sunday overnight. This is a Sunday, so the morning demand ramp will be shallower and later than a weekday — meaning the transition from negative prices back to $60+/MWh pricing is likely to occur later in the morning, with the bulk of thermal dispatch not needed until demand recovers past the 6,000 MW threshold. Black coal dominates generation at 4,798 MW against total demand of 6,554 MW, with renewables contributing just 6.29% and carbon intensity sitting at 0.8247 tCO2/MWh.
A significant market notice issue warrants attention: AEMO has issued "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering every trading interval from 03:30 through 06:30 AEST today. The sole confirmed-unchanged interval so far is 04:10 AEST. This review activity spans the pre-dawn period when prices ranged from negative to the low positives — any revisions could alter the settlement position for participants exposed to those intervals. Traders with positions in the early-morning window should monitor for further AEMO notices before assuming those prices are final. The review pattern is consistent with an input data anomaly rather than a pricing outcome dispute, but until AEMO confirms or revises each interval, settlement uncertainty remains across that two-hour block.