Interconnector Watch

Tasmania sits at the highest spot price on the NEM at 106.72 $/MWh, yet Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is carrying zero flow right now — a stark disconnect between Tasmania's premium pricing and its physical isolation from the mainland at this interval. With an export limit of 125 MW available, the absence of flow into Victoria (63.84 $/MWh) is notable and warrants watching; any resumption of northward exports would narrow that 42.88 $/MWh spread.

The dominant market dynamic this morning is QNI binding hard on its import limit. NSW1-QLD1 is flowing 713.77 MW southbound from Queensland into New South Wales and is sitting exactly on its import constraint at -713.76 MW — effectively at full capacity in this direction. This is directly driving the price wedge between QLD (55.40 $/MWh) and NSW (72.25 $/MWh): Queensland supply is pressing against the interconnector ceiling and cannot fully arbitrage the 16.85 $/MWh differential. The northbound export capability is severely curtailed at just 59.71 MW, meaning NSW has no meaningful relief valve in that direction either.

VIC-NSW (VIC1-NSW1) is flowing 538.53 MW northbound from Victoria into New South Wales, utilising 60% of its 896.04 MW export limit and remaining unbound. This flow is consistent with Victoria's lower price (63.84 $/MWh) supplying into the more expensive NSW market. Heywood (V-SA) is carrying a modest 28.81 MW from Victoria into South Australia and is sitting exactly on its import limit of 28.81 MW, though it is not flagged as binding — utilisation here is low relative to the 426.56 MW export capacity. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is flowing 38.68 MW from South Australia into Victoria and is pinned at its export limit of -38.68 MW, partially offsetting Heywood and reflecting SA's surplus at 55.83 $/MWh. The Directlink (N-Q-MNSP1) is flowing 89 MW southbound into New South Wales from Queensland at 55% of its import capacity, adding modest downward pressure on NSW prices but insufficient to close the QNI-driven spread. No constraint notices are active, but the QNI binding situation is the single most consequential constraint shaping NEM-wide price formation at this interval.