TAS1 · NEM — 5-min dispatch intervals
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Tasmania's electricity price forecasts are among the most stable in the NEM, reflecting the state's hydro-dominated generation fleet. With over 90 per cent of generation from dispatchable hydroelectric sources, forecast prices are less susceptible to the short-term variability that affects wind- and solar-dependent regions.
The primary factor affecting Tasmanian price forecasts is the Basslink HVDC cable connecting the state to Victoria. When Basslink is importing from Victoria, Tasmanian forecast prices tend to track Victorian levels. When Tasmania is exporting, the state's ample hydro reserves can maintain lower forecast prices independently. Basslink outages can cause significant forecast price divergence.
Dam storage levels are the key medium-term driver of Tasmanian price forecasts. When storage is high, generators bid aggressively to dispatch hydro generation, keeping forecast prices low. During drought periods or when storage falls below critical thresholds, forecast prices can rise substantially as generators conserve water for higher-value periods.