Next forecast interval: $93.32/MWh at
SA1 · NEM, 5-min dispatch intervals
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South Australia has the most volatile price forecasts in the NEM, driven by the region's high dependence on variable wind generation. Pre-dispatch forecasts can shift dramatically as wind speed projections are updated, with forecast prices swinging from negative to several hundred dollars per megawatt-hour within adjacent intervals.
The state's limited dispatchable generation fleet means that gas-fired peaking plants set the marginal price during periods of low wind output. These plants have significantly higher operating costs than the coal generators that dominate other NEM regions, contributing to South Australia's frequent price spikes when the wind drops.
Battery storage (including the Hornsdale Power Reserve) plays an increasing role in smoothing forecast price outcomes, providing fast-response generation during periods of high price forecasts. The Heywood interconnector to Victoria provides the state's primary link to the broader NEM, and constraints on this link can cause South Australian forecast prices to decouple from the rest of the market.
See current SA spot prices for live dispatch context, or read the wholesale electricity guide for background on how AEMO pre-dispatch forecasts are constructed.
AEMO publishes pre-dispatch price forecasts for South Australia up to 40 hours ahead, refreshed every 30 minutes. gridIQ shows a 24-hour forecast chart above.
SA’s heavy dependence on wind generation means forecast prices can shift from negative to several hundred dollars per MWh within adjacent intervals as wind speed projections are updated.
Pre-dispatch forecasts are AEMO’s best estimate given current bids and forecast demand, but they are not binding and can shift materially as wind forecasts and gas-generator availability are updated.
Low wind output forces reliance on higher-cost gas-fired peaking plants, and constraints on the Heywood interconnector to Victoria can cause SA forecast prices to decouple sharply from the rest of the NEM.