Sunday overnight saw demand troughs across all NEM regions as expected for a weekend, with prices bottoming sharply — QLD1 touched ~$39.71/MWh in the early hours — before a steep morning ramp drove all mainland regions back above $200/MWh by 06:35 AEST. NSW1 led mainland averages at $167/MWh over the 24-hour window. Watch Victoria closely today: demand was already at 5,266 MW at $226.51/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with the morning load trajectory pointing firmly upward. QNI remains a constraint to monitor — flow is essentially pinned at its import limit of -189.08 MW, meaning Queensland is drawing from NSW at the maximum allowed rate in that direction.
Tasmania was the standout region overnight. Renewable penetration reached 95.2%, driven by approximately 3,158 MW of hydroelectric output, keeping regional prices in a relatively narrow $96–$114/MWh band and delivering a carbon intensity of just 0.03 tCO2/MWh. However, the Basslink interconnector (constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) recorded a shadow price of $7.31 million across multiple settlement periods — a major binding constraint event indicating severe transmission congestion on the TAS1–VIC1 link. Despite modest regional reference prices, that shadow price signals tight limits on export capacity out of Tasmania during the affected periods. TAS1 also recorded the highest 24-hour maximum across the NEM at $350/MWh.
WA1 was relatively quiet by comparison. The 24-hour average settled at $123/MWh, with a daily maximum of $217/MWh — the lowest peak across all six regions covered in this brief. No significant constraint or supply events were flagged in WA1 over the period.
LOR conditions: STPASA shows no Lack of Reserve conditions forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours. Gas hubs: S