Markets closed out Thursday with South Australia swinging between near-zero overnight prices and a $176/MWh intraday spike, while Tasmania averaged $93/MWh — the priciest NEM region on a 24-hour basis. This morning, Victoria is printing negative prices (–$0.10/MWh at 06:30 AEST) against 2,913 MW of wind into a 4,477 MW Saturday morning load. SA is already at $138/MWh at 06:35 AEST with demand at just 1,266 MW — watch Murraylink, which is pinned at its export limit of 164 MW into SA and will remain a binding constraint on any further Victoria-to-SA relief today. Queensland demand is on an upward trajectory from an overnight trough near 4,600 MW; the $82.50/MWh spot at 06:35 AEST reflects that ramp beginning.
Tasmania ran at 100% renewable penetration during last night's peak, with hydro (~1,512 MW combined) and wind (~708 MW combined) meeting all regional demand. Despite full renewable coverage, prices were not suppressed: the regional reference price held around $95–96/MWh before lifting to $105.92/MWh in the final settlement interval, and the 24-hour average settled at $93/MWh with a session high of $139/MWh. TAS1 also recorded an intensity of 0.00 tCO₂/MWh across the dataset period, with no fossil fuel dispatch observed.
The WEM recorded three separate price spikes across 15 May: $261/MWh at midnight, $254/MWh at 10:15 AEST, and $255/MWh at 20:40 AEST — each isolated to a single trading interval. The 24-hour average landed at $167/MWh with a session high of $281/MWh, making WA1 by far the highest-priced jurisdiction in today's data. Spikes were transient rather than sustained, indicating episodic supply-demand tightening rather than system stress. No LOR conditions are flagged for WA in the 48-hour outlook.