regional nsw — NSW1
The NSW spot price sits at $74.54/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, against a total demand of 7,644 MW. Over the past 24 hours, prices traced a clear intraday arc: a morning peak sustained above $100/MWh between 18:00–19:00 AEST, a midday trough in the $57–$65/MWh range as demand fell away, and a brief but notable overnight period from roughly 13:00–14:00 AEST (UTC 03:00–04:00) where prices repeatedly printed negative, bottoming at -$2.64/MWh, before recovering into the current range. The 24-hour average sits approximately in the low-to-mid $50s/MWh, meaning the current price is running modestly above that baseline as demand climbs back from its overnight low.
The generation mix is dominated by black coal, which is contributing 5,391 MW — approximately 86% of the 6,249 MW currently being dispatched by registered generators in the mix data. Wind is generating 93 MW (around 1.5%) and solar 65 MW (approximately 1.0%), with hydro, gas CCGT, and gas OCGT all sitting at zero. Renewable penetration stands at just 2.84% as of the latest interval, a significant step down from a morning-window peak of approximately 11.3% reached around 19:00–20:00 AEST when solar was contributing more meaningfully. Carbon intensity is 0.855 tCO2/MWh — at the high end of today's observed range of 0.780–0.860 tCO2/MWh — consistent with the current low-renewable, high-coal dispatch profile as solar generation fades in the early evening.
Predispatch forecasts point to a stepdown in price over the next two trading intervals. The 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) interval is forecast at approximately $75.79/MWh based on the most recent predispatch run, while the 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) interval is forecast to ease to $56.98/MWh, suggesting a relatively prompt drop as overnight demand softens. The load window data reinforces this outlook: forecast prices for intervals between 08:00 and 13:30 AEST are predominantly negative to low single digits, indicating a deep overnight trough is expected, before a morning ramp toward the $22–$38/MWh range from approximately 15:30–16:30 AEST.
AEMO has issued a significant number of active market notices under Clause 3.9.2B of the National Electricity Rules for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs, covering a near-continuous run of intervals from 22 April 00:05 through to 05:45 AEST. Most of these remain active "Prices Subject to Review" notices, with two confirmed "Prices Unchanged" outcomes already published for 01:50 and 05:25 AEST. Traders should treat published prices across the overnight window with caution until further confirmations are issued — settlements for the affected intervals remain open to revision. No specific affected regions are nominated in the notices, implying potential NEM-wide scope.