regional nsw — NSW1
The NSW spot price sits at $75.42/MWh at 06:25 AEST with total demand at 7,444 MW, well below the morning peak of $133.03/MWh recorded during the 06:50 AEST interval on Monday. The 24-hour price profile shows a pronounced morning ramp — prices climbed from sub-$40/MWh in the overnight trough to above $120/MWh during the 07:00–09:00 AEST window before easing back through the afternoon and evening to current levels. The current reading represents a soft re-escalation as the region moves into its Tuesday morning ramp, with demand tracking upward from the overnight low of around 5,300 MW.
The generation mix is dominated by black coal at 4,942 MW, with hydro contributing 260 MW, wind 153 MW, and solar 77 MW. Gas CCGT and OCGT are both at zero output. Renewables are contributing approximately 7.9% of generation at the latest carbon intensity reading (06:30 AEST), consistent with the post-solar-window period where wind is the primary variable source. Carbon intensity sits at 0.8102 tCO2/MWh, elevated relative to the midday trough of 0.7333 tCO2/MWh recorded around 19:00–19:30 AEST when rooftop and utility solar output was at its peak. With solar potential currently at zero and wind potential low (wind speed 5.8 km/h, 42% cloud cover, 12.6°C), the renewable share is unlikely to rise meaningfully until solar generation ramps from approximately 08:00 AEST onward.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST trading interval are converging around $76.99–$84.79/MWh, with the most recent runs (from 06:00–06:30 AEST) pointing to $76.99/MWh. Earlier in the trading day, forecasts for this same interval reached as high as $105.78/MWh, suggesting the morning ramp is tracking softer than initially expected. Forecasts for the 07:30 AEST interval are more dispersed, with recent runs around $84.79–$97.65/MWh, indicating residual uncertainty around the morning demand peak. The load window data signals that overnight and early-morning intervals — particularly 09:00–11:00 AEST (midnight to 02:00 UTC) — carry prices in negative to low single-digit $/MWh territory, which is relevant for flexible industrial loads and battery charging strategies.
AEMO has issued a significant volume of active market notices under Clause 3.9.2B of the National Electricity Rules for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs, covering multiple intervals across the early hours of 21 April from 00:05 through to 06:20 AEST. Two intervals — 03:25 AEST and 02:25 AEST — have been reviewed and confirmed unchanged. The remaining notices, including the most recent covering the 05:25 through 06:20 AEST window, remain active and unresolved as of this briefing. Traders should treat settled prices across these intervals as provisional until AEMO completes its review; any retrospective adjustments could affect settlement positions for participants with exposure to those dispatch intervals.