regional nsw — NSW1

The NSW spot price sits at $122.2/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 7,539 MW as the Monday morning ramp accelerates. This is the upper end of the day's pricing range — the overnight trough ran deep into negative territory from roughly 10:00 AEST Sunday through to pre-dawn, with prices as low as -$6.01/MWh during the early-morning off-peak. The sharp recovery through the 16:30–17:30 AEST window from $38/MWh to over $100/MWh reflects a typical autumn morning demand surge compressing supply headroom. Price has traded at or near the $122.2/MWh cap on multiple dispatch intervals this morning, signalling the market is clearing at or around the intermediate thermal stack.

The current generation mix is dominated by black coal at 5,479 MW, with hydro contributing 924 MW and wind at 98 MW. Solar output is zero at this pre-dawn interval. Gas (both CCGT and OCGT) shows nil dispatch. Total renewable contribution sits at 15.73% of output at the latest interval — a marked improvement on the overnight trough of around 1–2% when wind was minimal and solar absent, but well below the midday peak of approximately 19.3% renewable penetration recorded around 09:00–09:30 AEST. Carbon intensity is currently 0.7416 tCO2/MWh, down from overnight highs above 0.86 tCO2/MWh as hydro and wind are contributing more proportionally into rising demand.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) point to easing — the most recent forecast run at 06:01 AEST places that interval at $98.14/MWh, down from earlier forecasts through the morning that had that same interval priced between $120–$138.42/MWh. This downward revision in predispatch is consistent with increased supply confidence as the trading day firms. The 07:30 AEST interval is forecast at $99.90/MWh across multiple recent runs, suggesting prices are expected to stabilise in the high-$90s to low-$100s range rather than sustain above $120/MWh. Load window data confirms the deep-overnight period (08:00–11:00 AEST, 22:00–01:00 UTC) is forecast to clear at $10–$45/MWh — a pronounced low-price window relevant to flexible loads and scheduled charging.

Traders should note an extensive sequence of active AEMO market notices flagging prices as subject to review under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) across a large number of early-morning intervals from approximately 04:30 through to 06:30 AEST. Intervals 04:40 and 02:20 AEST have since been confirmed unchanged following review, but intervals spanning 04:45 through 06:30 AEST remain under active review. This is an unusually broad review window and participants with settlement exposure across those intervals should treat cleared prices as provisional until AEMO closes each review. The 04:40 AEST confirmation notice (Market Notice 141704) provides some precedent that prices may be left unchanged, but no outcome has been issued for the bulk of the flagged intervals as of this briefing.