regional nsw — NSW1

The NSW spot price sits at $109.23/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, elevated relative to the overnight trough where prices sustained negative territory from roughly 21:35 through to the pre-dawn period — bottoming near -$8.80/MWh around 02:20 AEST. The morning ramp was sharp: prices crossed $79/MWh at 16:00 AEST and have been largely sustaining above $97–$100/MWh through the evening peak, with the most recent intervals touching $122–$125/MWh before easing back to the current $109.23/MWh on demand of 6,549 MW. The 24-hour profile shows a pronounced price arc — extended sub-zero overnight, a sharp morning ramp from 16:00 AEST, peak demand above 8,375 MW in the 18:15–18:25 AEST window, and a gradual demand taper through the evening now tracking around 6,550 MW.

The generation mix is dominated by black coal at 5,015.65 MW, with hydro contributing 366.9 MW and wind at 68.92 MW. Solar output is zero given the overnight timeframe, and both gas CCGT and OCGT are dispatching nil. Total renewables — wind and hydro combined — are contributing approximately 7.99% of the generation mix, consistent with the carbon intensity reading of 0.8096 tCO2/MWh. This is up from the day's low of 0.7178 tCO2/MWh recorded around 09:30 AEST when solar generation was augmenting the mix and renewable penetration reached 18.43%, illustrating the typical intraday carbon intensity swing driven by solar availability.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) are converging around $120/MWh from the most recent run issued at 06:01 AEST — a significant step up from earlier forecasts for the same interval that were sitting in the $57–$76/MWh range. This upward revision through the afternoon and evening predispatch sequence signals tighter-than-expected supply conditions as the post-sunset period extends. The 07:30 AEST interval is forecast near $37.89/MWh across multiple predispatch runs, suggesting a sharp price collapse is expected once demand softens from the evening peak. Load windows from 08:00 AEST (22:00 UTC) onward are projecting near-zero or negative prices into the small hours of Monday morning, with the deepest values approaching -$25.50/MWh around 13:30–14:30 AEST today.

AEMO has issued a substantial volume of active market notices flagging prices subject to review under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) across a continuous run of intervals from 04:30 through 06:25 AEST today. These cover intervals at 05:30, 05:35, 05:40 through to 06:25 AEST — a span of nearly two hours of early-morning negative pricing. Two earlier intervals (02:25 and 03:25 AEST) have since been confirmed as prices unchanged. Traders with settlement exposure across the reviewed intervals should treat those prices as provisional until AEMO issues final determination notices. The volume and sequencing of these notices indicates a systematic