regional nsw — NSW1

The NSW spot price sits at $79/MWh as of 6:30 AEST, with demand at 6,766 MW — well off the morning peak of around 8,900 MW recorded near 7:00–8:00 AEST. Prices tracked in a tight band of $77–$92/MWh through the bulk of the business day before easing into the evening. The overnight trough was notable: prices fell to zero or sub-$5/MWh across multiple intervals between 9:00–11:30 AEST (UTC 23:00–01:30), reflecting low overnight demand against committed baseload. The 24-hour price profile has been two-staged — a sub-$25/MWh overnight floor giving way to a sustained $75–$92/MWh daytime plateau, with a brief intraday spike to $98.83/MWh at 6:25 AEST.

The generation mix is heavily weighted to black coal, which is supplying approximately 5,461 MW — around 81% of in-region output. Hydro is contributing 511 MW (roughly 7.5%), and wind is adding 103 MW (approximately 1.5%). Solar is at zero, consistent with post-sunset conditions. Gas CCGT and OCGT are both offline. Total renewable penetration sits at 10.12%, with carbon intensity at 0.791 tCO2/MWh. Through the solar window earlier today (approximately 18:00–19:00 AEST), renewables reached a daily peak of around 19% penetration and intensity dipped to a low of 0.711 tCO2/MWh at the 8:30 AEST interval — the cleanest point of the day. Intensity has since trended back up as solar output fell away and black coal's share of a lower total demand increased proportionally.

Predispatch forecasts for the 7:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) are converging on the $91–$98/MWh range, with the most recent runs pointing to approximately $94/MWh. Earlier predispatch runs issued around midnight had forecast that interval as high as $138/MWh, but successive revisions have progressively wound the estimate back as the dispatch picture clarified. The 7:30 AEST interval is forecast in the $85–$98/MWh band. Load window data shows overnight intervals from 8:00 AEST onward pricing negative through to around 16:30 AEST, with the deepest negative windows in the -$10 to -$16/MWh range between roughly 11:00–13:00 AEST — consistent with Saturday solar generation profile expected across the region tomorrow.

Two active network notices are relevant to NSW. Market Notice 141113 advises a planned MSATS outage on 26 April from 10:00–14:00 AEST, which will affect metering data access and B2B transactions but has no dispatch impact. More operationally significant is Notice 141109, which flagged the unplanned outage of the Tarrone–Heywood/APD 500 kV line in Victoria, invoking constraint set V-HYTR from 22:00 AEST — this constraint set includes VIC1-NSW1 on the left-hand side and may limit southward transfer capability on the interconnector through the evening. The earlier NSW notice (141106) relating to the