regional nsw — NSW1
The NSW spot price sits at $57.06/MWh as of 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 7,290 MW. This is a marked improvement from the morning peak, where prices touched $98.14/MWh at 17:30 AEST and sustained readings in the $77–$92/MWh range through the bulk of the business day. Overnight, the region recorded extended periods of negative pricing — bottoming near -$3.13/MWh between approximately 11:00–12:00 AEST — reflecting low overnight demand against available baseload supply. The current price represents a return to stability as the evening demand build commences.
The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by black coal at 5,339 MW, with wind contributing 344 MW and hydro 182 MW. Solar output sits at 0 MW, consistent with post-sunset conditions, and both gas CCGT and gas OCGT are offline. Renewables are contributing 8.97% of supply at the latest interval, up from a trough of 5.85% recorded in the early hours of the morning. The intraday peak for renewable penetration reached 15.64% around 18:00 AEST as wind and residual solar combined during the shoulder period. Carbon intensity currently stands at 0.8011 tCO2/MWh, down slightly from the overnight high of 0.8285 tCO2/MWh but consistent with the region's coal-heavy evening dispatch profile.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) have converged substantially from early-morning projections of $79–$82/MWh down to $57.06–$62.74/MWh across the most recent runs, signalling that the market does not anticipate a significant price spike into the early evening. The 07:30 AEST interval is forecast at $54.84–$57.06/MWh. Load window modelling points to a sharp drop into negative territory from 08:00 AEST onwards as overnight conditions re-emerge, with forecast prices in the -$3 to -$26/MWh range through the 13:00–14:30 AEST window — an optimal window for flexible and deferrable loads.
The most directly relevant market notice for NSW is the inter-regional transfer notice (MN 141090) confirming that the planned outage of the Avon–Marulan 16 330 kV line — which had constrained NSW import/export capacity from 07:00 to 17:00 AEST — was completed and the line returned to service at 14:50 AEST. No NSW-specific contingency reclassifications are active; the remaining active notices relate to VIC and TAS transmission lines reclassified due to lightning activity, all of which have since been resolved or cancelled. No reserve notices apply to NSW at this time.