Regional Outlook — NSW1: Monday 13 April 2026

The NSW spot price sits at $119.49/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, well above the rolling average of roughly $85–90/MWh that characterised the prior 24 hours — a period marked by sustained sub-$5/MWh and negative pricing through the overnight trough (bottoming at -$3.31/MWh around 02:00–03:00 AEST) before a sharp morning ramp that pushed prices above $100/MWh from approximately 17:00 AEST and held there. Total demand sits at 7,637 MW, consistent with the evening build. The day's peak demand reached approximately 9,059 MW around 18:00–18:30 AEST, which drove the sustained triple-digit pricing that has persisted into this interval.

The generation mix is dominated by black coal at 5,485 MW, with hydro contributing 491 MW and wind at 134 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with the post-sunset interval. Gas CCGT and OCGT are both at 0 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 10.24%, with wind and hydro combining for approximately 625 MW of the ~6,100 MW net output picture. Carbon intensity is 0.7899 tCO2/MWh — broadly flat across the evening after peaking at 0.8178 tCO2/MWh during the pre-solar morning hours and improving to a daytime low of 0.7186 tCO2/MWh at 19:00 AEST when solar was near its peak contribution.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) are converging around $99–100/MWh, down from earlier runs that had pegged the same interval at $119–127/MWh, suggesting the market is pricing in modest demand softening as the evening progresses. The 07:30 AEST half-hour is consistently forecast at $76.99/MWh across all recent predispatch runs, pointing to a clear step-down as demand retreats from the evening peak. Load window data confirms negative to near-zero pricing is expected to return in the overnight period from approximately 08:00–09:00 AEST onwards, with floor prices modelled as low as -$23.50/MWh in some intervals around 13:00–14:00 AEST today.

Two market notices directly relevant to NSW pricing remain active. AEMO issued and subsequently cancelled a negative settlement residue constraint on the QLD–NSW directional interconnector (NRM_QLD1_NSW1) between 15:35 and 16:15 AEST, which contributed to price volatility during that window; six intervals between 15:50 and 16:15 AEST are also flagged as prices subject to review under NER clause 3.9.2B for manifestly incorrect inputs. Traders should treat settlement outcomes for those intervals as provisional. A Telstra Melbourne inbound telephony outage affecting AEMO's contact infrastructure is scheduled between 11:00 and 16:00 AEST today (14 April), with calls rerouted via Perth — operational impact is low but worth noting for any participant needing to contact AEMO directly during that window.