Load Advisor

Negative prices are the headline number this morning. NSW1 forecasts are currently sitting at -$25.50/MWh for the 1:00–1:30 AEST window and -$17.60/MWh at 12:30 AEST, with the deep negative run extending across midnight through to approximately 15:30 AEST before prices lift. QLD1 shows a similar overnight trough, with predispatch touching -$22.76/MWh around 13:00 AEST and holding sub -$10/MWh for most of the midnight-to-14:30 AEST corridor. VIC1 is negative across the entire overnight window—settling near -$4.07/MWh at its trough around 12:30 AEST—and remains at or below zero until approximately 15:30 AEST. SA1 is the notable outlier: prices are currently at $69.93/MWh and the predispatch windows continue to show prices above $80/MWh through most of the morning and into the afternoon, making it the weakest shifting opportunity on the NEM today. TAS1 is locked in a narrow band around $75–$93/MWh throughout the forecast horizon, offering no meaningful shift opportunity.

The optimal load-shifting window for interconnected NEM participants is **08:00–14:30 AEST across NSW1 and QLD1**, where the deepest and most sustained negative prices are forecast. NSW1's 13:00 AEST interval at -$25.50/MWh and QLD1's 13:00 AEST interval at -$22.76/MWh represent the single best half-hour targets for dispatchable loads such as pumping, electrolysers, cold stores, and desalination. VIC1 participants will find sustained savings from midnight through to 15:00 AEST, though at shallower depths than NSW and QLD. The period to avoid across all mainland regions is **16:30–17:30 AEST**, where predispatch prices will rise sharply as the post-solar demand ramp begins—QLD1 already shows prices returning to $23–24/MWh at the 16:30 AEST mark, and NSW1 pops to $22/MWh in the same window.

For SA1, the advisory is to defer non-critical flexible load to overnight if possible, or target the brief spot of sub-$5/MWh prices appearing in isolated predispatch intervals around 14:30–15:00 AEST. SA operators should not expect the same depth or duration of negative pricing seen in eastern regions today. TAS1 loads have no meaningful shifting opportunity within the forecast horizon given the flat $75–$93/MWh profile; scheduling decisions there are better driven by operational rather than price criteria.