Load Advisor

Negative prices across NSW, VIC, SA, and QLD are the dominant signal today. NSW currently sits at $71.4/MWh and QLD at $78.08/MWh, but predispatch forecasts show both regions dropping into negative territory from 08:00 AEST, with NSW hitting as low as -$40.54/MWh around 11:00 AEST and QLD reaching -$65.23/MWh near 13:30 AEST. SA and VIC are already negative at -$3.45/MWh and -$3.55/MWh respectively and will continue in that range through the morning, with SA forecast to trough near -$57.22/MWh around 13:00 AEST. VIC will reach its deepest discounts in the 11:30–13:30 AEST band, touching around -$63.60/MWh.

The prime load-shifting window for all interconnected NEM regions is **08:00–15:30 AEST**, with the deepest negative prices concentrated between **11:00 and 14:00 AEST**. NSW flexible loads—industrial, commercial HVAC, hot water, and battery charging—should target the 10:30–12:30 AEST window where predispatch savings versus the current spot rate exceed $120/MWh. QLD operators should prioritise the 13:00–14:00 AEST band where the saving opportunity exceeds $209/MWh relative to the current dispatch price of $78.08/MWh. SA shows consistently large savings throughout the 08:00–15:00 AEST window, with the market-leading opportunity near 13:00 AEST where savings exceed $227/MWh against the reference price.

TAS1 does not present a viable load-shifting window today. Predispatch prices are anchored around $60.18/MWh through most of the forecast horizon, with only brief and shallow dips into the low $20/MWh range during some intervals. Tasmanian flexible loads are better held or deferred. The evening period from approximately 17:30 AEST onward will see NSW and QLD prices recover toward positive territory as solar output retreats and evening demand builds — flexible loads committed earlier in the day should be completed before 16:00 AEST to avoid that recovery.

Concrete recommendation: Schedule dispatchable flexible loads in NSW, VIC, SA, and QLD to commence no later than 09:30 AEST and target peak consumption between 11:00 and 13:30 AEST. Avoid committing new load after 15:30 AEST in any region. Battery operators should prioritise charging in the 10:00–13:00 AEST window NEM-wide.