regional nsw — NSW1

The NSW1 spot price sits at $76.30/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, down from the morning peak that saw prices spike to $126.20/MWh during the 17:05–17:15 AEST window and sustain above $105/MWh for much of the 17:00–18:30 AEST period. Overnight, prices compressed into the $35–$43/MWh range and briefly went negative (reaching -$4.77/MWh around 15:50 AEST) before the morning demand ramp pushed settlement prices back above $75/MWh. Total demand sits at 6,622 MW, well below today's intraday peak of approximately 9,400 MW recorded around 18:25 AEST, consistent with a Saturday post-morning profile.

The generation mix is heavily weighted to black coal, which is producing 5,031 MW — the dominant fuel source on the grid right now. Wind is contributing 457 MW, while solar, hydro, gas CCGT, and gas OCGT are all reading zero at this interval, reflecting the post-sunset, low-demand conditions of early Saturday morning. Renewable penetration sits at 8.33% at the current interval, which is notably lower than the day's high of 18.61% recorded around 19:00 AEST when wind output was stronger relative to a declining demand profile. Carbon intensity is 0.8067 tCO2/MWh, up from the day's low of 0.6949 tCO2/MWh at 19:00 AEST — the intensity floor aligned with the period of highest renewable share.

Predispatch forecasts point to a material price step-down from the current $76.30/MWh. The 07:00 AEST half-hour is forecast at $63.79/MWh (most recent run), with the 07:30 AEST interval forecast between $22.30 and $37.89/MWh across successive predispatch runs — the lower end of that range has been consistent across most earlier runs, suggesting the market anticipates a genuine easing as overnight baseload conditions persist into the early morning. Load window data reinforces this, with negative prices forecast across the 08:00–13:30 AEST window (UTC 22:00–03:30), with the deepest prints around -$35.95/MWh flagged for the 12:00–13:00 AEST period, likely reflecting solar generation build against low Saturday demand.

The active market notices most relevant to NSW are the two settlement residue notices (141014 and 141018) relating to negative residues on the NSW-to-VIC directional interconnector: the NRM_NSW1_VIC1 constraint commenced at 19:00 AEST and was cancelled at 19:45 AEST, indicating a brief but material period of price separation on that flow path. A non-conformance notice (140987) was issued for NESBESS1 — a NSW battery storage unit — covering a 15-minute window at 19:05–19:20 AEST at -100 MW, signalling a dispatch deviation during the evening ramp. The bulk of remaining active notices relate to TAS1 lightning-driven contingency reclassifications, which have no direct constraint impact on NSW1 at this time.