regional nsw — NSW1

The NSW1 spot price sits at $76.99/MWh against a demand of 7,348 MW as of 06:35 AEST. That price is well below the morning peak that saw intervals hit $187.79/MWh around 17:25 AEST and sustained $106/MWh blocks through the 18:00–19:15 AEST window. The market has since settled into a tight band between $76.99 and $84.71/MWh through the early evening, reflecting demand pulling back from the 09:57 AEST peak of approximately 9,880 MW to current levels. The 24-hour price profile shows the classic autumn shape: a deep overnight trough with multiple intervals near or below $1/MWh between roughly 11:45 and 12:30 AEST, a sharp morning ramp from $37.98/MWh at 14:00 AEST to over $120/MWh by 17:00 AEST, and a gradual easing into the current mid-$70s range.

Black coal dominates the generation mix at 5,138 MW, with wind contributing 433 MW and rooftop/utility solar at 80 MW — the latter figure reflecting post-sunset conditions. Hydro, gas CCGT, and gas OCGT are all sitting at zero dispatch in the current interval. Total renewable penetration stands at 9.07%, consistent with the evening trough in solar output. Carbon intensity is 0.8001 tCO2/MWh, near the top of today's range; the low point was 0.7252 tCO2/MWh recorded around 12:15 AEST when wind output was relatively stronger and demand was lighter. Grid stress scores are elevated at 72.2/100, reflecting the coal-heavy, low-renewable evening mix.

Predispatch forecasts point to a softening price trajectory into the overnight period. The 07:00 AEST half-hour is forecast at $72.02/MWh, the 07:30 AEST half-hour at approximately $65.51/MWh, and the 08:00–08:30 AEST window in the $57–$62/MWh range, consistent with demand falling away as residential load winds down. Prices are then forecast to rise sharply from around 17:00 AEST (07:00 UTC) into the morning peak window, with predispatch showing $105–$126/MWh for the 17:00–18:00 AEST window and spikes into the $220–$250/MWh range forecast for 18:30–20:00 AEST — driven by the morning demand ramp against diminishing overnight baseload headroom ahead of solar generation arriving.

One NSW1-specific market notice is active today: unit SUNTPSF1 was declared non-conforming by AEMO for a 10-minute window (08:30–08:40 AEST) at 35 MW deviation under NC-N_SUNTPSF1. This is a minor, resolved event with no ongoing constraint. The broader notice board is dominated by lightning-driven contingency reclassifications on Victorian and Tasmanian transmission lines; none carry NSW1 as a directly affected region, though the active TAS1 Farrell corridor reclassification (notice 140983, as yet uncancelled) has historically influenced Basslink flows