Regional Outlook — NSW1: Wednesday 8 April 2026
The NSW1 spot price sits at $79/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 7,325 MW. That price marks a significant step down from the morning peak, which ran at $148–$183/MWh between 17:00 and 18:00 AEST, and a sharp contrast to the overnight trough where prices fell to near zero and briefly into negative territory between 12:45 and 13:00 AEST. The 24-hour price profile traces a classic weekday shape: deep overnight lows, a steep morning ramp from around 15:00 AEST, sustained elevation through the business day, then gradual easing into the late evening.
Black coal dominates the generation mix at 5,637 MW, accounting for the large majority of output. Wind contributes 245 MW and solar 143 MW, with hydro providing 40 MW. Gas CCGT and OCGT are both at zero output. Combined, wind and solar represent a renewable share of 7.06% at the current interval — down from a daytime peak of around 15% during the 17:00–19:00 AEST window when solar was producing more strongly. Carbon intensity stands at 0.8178 tCO2/MWh, which is consistent with the coal-heavy dispatch profile and sits towards the upper end of today's range. The intensity was marginally lower through the mid-morning solar window, dipping to around 0.728 tCO2/MWh near 18:00–19:00 AEST.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval point to $79/MWh, with the 07:30 AEST interval forecast at approximately $52/MWh — indicating the market expects prices to soften further as overnight demand falls away. Load window signals through 09:00–13:30 AEST (UTC+10) show sustained negative prices in the range of -$3 to -$14/MWh, consistent with anticipated overnight oversupply conditions as demand falls below minimum system load thresholds and inflexible baseload generation pushes prices to the floor.
The most relevant active market notice for NSW1 is the non-conformance declaration against unit ORABESS1 (Market Notices 140951 and 140957), which was flagged for deviating from dispatch targets by 51 MW on two separate occasions on 7 April. There are no active reserve, intervention, or inter-regional transfer notices directly affecting NSW1 at this time. The SA1 contingency reclassification involving the Penola West and Kincraig lines (MN 140959/140960) has been cancelled as of 03:14 AEST today, and the MT PASA reserve notice (MN 140949) confirms no forecast Lack of Reserve conditions across the NEM for the outlook period.