regional nsw — NSW1
The NSW spot price sits at $187.70/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, up sharply from the sub-$100/MWh levels seen in the early hours of this morning when overnight demand troughed below 5,100 MW. The current dispatch interval reflects demand of 7,203 MW, consistent with the morning ramp now well underway. The price trajectory through the day has been stark: prices collapsed to near-zero and briefly negative between roughly 10:30 and 13:00 AEST as overnight demand fell away, before climbing steadily through the afternoon and evening peak. The most recent dispatch spike to $237.86/MWh at 06:10 AEST signals tightening conditions as the grid absorbs the full morning load.
The generation mix at the latest available interval (06:10 AEST) shows black coal dominating at 5,572 MW, hydro contributing 1,037 MW, gas CCGT at 427 MW, solar at 25 MW, and wind at just 13 MW. Renewable penetration is 6.82% per the latest carbon intensity record, well below the overnight high of 21.1% recorded around 11:30 AEST when demand was low and the renewable share was proportionally larger. Carbon intensity stands at 0.80 tCO2/MWh — the highest reading in today's dataset — reflecting the high coal dispatch share required to meet the morning peak load.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour target are centred around $168/MWh, with the 07:30 AEST target forecast dropping more materially to approximately $98/MWh. This suggests the market expects price relief as the morning peak plateaus and demand begins to ease from its 9,000+ MW peak reached around 17:00–18:00 AEST. The MT PASA reserve notice issued this morning confirms no Low Reserve Conditions are forecast across the NEM, which provides some comfort against further sustained price spikes. Flex load operators and battery operators should note the load window data points to overnight periods from 08:30 AEST onwards offering prices well below $20/MWh — including multiple intervals with negative prices — making tonight's off-peak window a strong candidate for demand shifting or storage charging.
Two NSW1 non-conformance notices remain active for battery unit ORABESS1, which was declared non-conforming by AEMO across two separate windows (14:30–14:45 AEST and 15:35–16:05 AEST) at 51 MW on each occasion under constraint NC-N_ORABESS1. The intervals under review for manifestly incorrect inputs at the 15:15 AEST trading interval have been resolved with prices confirmed unchanged. No reserve or intervention notices are active in NSW. Traders should monitor whether the ORABESS1 non-conformances have any carry-over dispatch impact on battery availability for tonight's off-peak window.