Load Advisor

NSW1, VIC1, SA1, and QLD1 all show predispatch prices collapsing to near-zero or negative between 08:30 and 14:30 AEST (00:30–04:30 UTC) today, with NSW1 recording multiple intervals at $0.01/MWh and several negative prints as low as -$3.67/MWh. This is the primary load-shifting window across the NEM's mainland regions. SA1 is the standout, with the deepest negative prices in the data set reaching -$4.00/MWh and savings opportunities above $965/MWh relative to current spot — a function of its isolated position and the scale of supply relative to demand at 1,404 MW. QLD1 similarly posts sustained near-zero and negative intervals through 14:00 AEST, while VIC1 holds sub-$1/MWh prices across much of the same window.

TAS1 is a structurally different market. Prices sit in a narrow band between $76/MWh and $99/MWh throughout the forecast period with no low-price trough, reflecting the island's hydro-dominated dispatch and Basslink's influence on the interconnected pricing outcome. Flexible load in TAS1 cannot be cost-effectively shifted using today's forecast signals.

For NSW1, VIC1, SA1, and QLD1, prices will rise sharply from approximately 16:30 AEST onward (06:30 UTC) as morning demand builds. NSW1 is currently at $187.70/MWh with demand at 7,203 MW, and predispatch shows prices beginning to firm from the 16:30–17:00 AEST window as the morning ramp progresses. SA1 returns to $45–55/MWh territory by 16:30 AEST and climbs further through the morning peak. QLD1 will push above $40/MWh from 15:00 AEST and into the $50s by 16:30 AEST. The afternoon peak period — expected to carry prices well above $100/MWh across all mainland regions — is the exposure interval to avoid.

The concrete recommendation: schedule all flexible loads capable of operating overnight into the 09:00–14:00 AEST window, targeting SA1 and NSW1 first for maximum savings depth. Defer any discretionary load that would otherwise fall between 16:30 and 21:00 AEST. For loads with a 30-minute shift tolerance, the 12:30–14:00 AEST band provides the last reliable sub-$10/MWh window before the morning ramp closes out low-price access across all mainland regions.