regional nsw — NSW1
The NSW spot price sits at $86.47/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 7,147 MW. Looking across the past 24 hours, prices surged through the morning peak — reaching $113.45/MWh at 18:30 AEST — before easing back through the afternoon and evening as demand pulled away from its 8,472 MW intraday peak recorded around 19:25 AEST. The overnight trough saw prices dip as low as $22.32/MWh in the post-midnight period, giving a wide intraday range that reflects a classic autumn demand profile with a pronounced morning ramp. The current $86.47/MWh print sits above the 24-hour average, which tracks in the high $70s to low $80s for most of the business day window.
The generation mix is heavily weighted towards black coal, which is supplying approximately 4,522 MW — the dominant source by a wide margin. Wind is contributing 145 MW and solar 103 MW, with hydro, gas CCGT, and gas OCGT all at zero output in the latest dispatch interval. Renewables are contributing approximately 4.62% of total generation in the most recent carbon data interval (06:00 AEST — noting this corresponds to the 19:30 UTC data point), which is well below the day's modest peak of around 12% recorded in the mid-morning. Carbon intensity sits at 0.84 tCO2/MWh, consistent with the coal-heavy mix and broadly unchanged across the past several hours.
Predispatch forecasts point to a continued easing through the remainder of today. The 07:00 AEST dispatch window (21:00 UTC) is forecast at $74.74/MWh in the most recent predispatch run, down from earlier forecasts that had that interval as high as $122/MWh earlier in the day — a significant convergence as actual conditions clarified. Load optimisation windows from 08:00 AEST (22:00 UTC) onwards show forecast prices dropping sharply into negative territory, with intervals forecast as low as -$25.50/MWh through the 12:30–14:30 AEST window (02:30–04:30 UTC) — a signal of anticipated oversupply in the overnight period. Prices are forecast to recover towards the $35–$55/MWh range from approximately 16:00 AEST (06:00 UTC) as the morning demand ramp begins.
On market notices, there are no active notices directly affecting NSW1 operations today. An older non-conformance notice relates to unit WTAHB1 in NSW1 on 5 April (a minor 8 MW deviation, now resolved). The active notice activity in the queue is concentrated in South Australia, where AEMO has issued and subsequently cancelled a voltage-related foreseeable intervention for the SA region today, and an active direction to an SA participant remains in place. The inter-regional transfer limit variation on the Larcom Creek–Calliope River 275kV line in Queensland remains active and carries a constraint on the NSW1–QLD1 interconnector (N-Q-MNSP1, NSW1-QLD1 on the LHS), which traders should monitor for potential flow impacts on the northern interconnector boundary.