Load Advisor

Negative wholesale prices are the headline signal across NSW, VIC, QLD, and SA tonight and into the early hours of 7 April, with NSW predispatch forecasting prices as low as -$25.50/MWh during the 11:30–12:00 AEST window (00:30–02:30 UTC). This is the deepest and most sustained low-price corridor on the NEM today.

**Optimal load-shifting windows (AEST):**

• **NSW:** The prime window runs from approximately 09:00 AEST tonight through to 12:30 AEST early morning, with prices tracking between -$25.50/MWh and -$4.31/MWh across the predispatch series. The deepest troughs cluster around the 11:30–12:00 AEST slots. Prices will then drift back toward the floor ($0–$3/MWh) through 14:30–15:30 AEST before rising sharply to $35–$54/MWh from 16:00 AEST onward as the morning peak arrives. Avoid 16:30–17:30 AEST, where prices are forecast at $50–$55/MWh.

• **VIC:** Negative prices are already present and will persist from now through to approximately 15:30 AEST, with prices ranging from -$25.44/MWh to -$3.26/MWh. The deepest windows sit around the 11:30–13:30 AEST range. VIC transitions to positive territory from 16:00 AEST ($8.95–$11/MWh) and rises further from 17:00 AEST, so load should be clear of the grid by then.

• **QLD:** Negative prices will appear from approximately 08:30 AEST tonight, deepening to -$21.35/MWh around the 11:30–12:30 AEST window. QLD returns toward zero through 14:30–15:30 AEST before rising quickly above $33/MWh from 16:00 AEST. The 07:30–08:00 AEST window still clears at just $0/MWh, providing a secondary opportunity. Avoid scheduling anything past 16:30 AEST.

• **SA:** SA is the outlier. Current price sits at $45.10/MWh with significant volatility — the predispatch series shows prices oscillating between -$15.46/MWh (around 13:30 AEST) and $160+ /MWh from 17:00 AEST onward. SA's morning ramp is severe, with prices forecast above $100/MWh by 18:00–19:30 AEST. Flexible load in SA should be concentrated in the 10:00–16:00 AEST window where negative and near-zero prices are forecast, and must be shed well before 17:00 AEST.

• **TAS:** Prices are anchored near $88–$96/MWh throughout the predispatch horizon with no negative windows forecast. There is no viable load-shifting opportunity in TAS today on price grounds.

**Recommendation:** Schedule all deferrable loads — industrial processes, HVAC pre-cooling, EV charging, and battery charging — to commence no later than 09:00 AEST and complete by