regional nsw — NSW1

The NSW spot price sits at $65.01/MWh at 06:30 AEST, down sharply from the evening peak which saw prices holding in the $77–$99/MWh range through the business day and into the evening. Over the past 24 hours the region traced a textbook autumn demand curve: prices dipped negative or near-zero between roughly 00:30 and 05:45 AEST as overnight demand fell below 4,500 MW, then climbed steeply into the morning ramp, sustaining above $77/MWh for most of the daylight hours before a brief late-afternoon spike to $99.90/MWh at 02:00 UTC (13:00 AEST). Demand currently sits at 6,224 MW, consistent with the post-peak evening taper. The 24-hour weighted average price is materially above today's current reading, reflecting the sustained mid-$70s to high-$80s pricing that dominated the operational day.

The generation mix at 06:00 AEST is dominated by black coal at 4,281 MW, with hydro contributing 167 MW and wind at 151 MW. Solar output is zero at this hour, consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Gas CCGT and OCGT are both at zero dispatch. Total renewable output — wind and hydro combined — accounts for approximately 6.91% of generation, down from a midday high of around 16.5% when solar was contributing through the daylight period. Carbon intensity currently stands at 0.8192 tCO2/MWh, elevated compared to the 0.735 tCO2/MWh recorded around 10:00 AEST when the renewable share was at its daily peak. Traders and sustainability managers should note the intensity figure will remain at this level or higher through the early morning hours as solar is absent and wind output is modest.

Predispatch forecasts point to a significant price step-down through the overnight period. The 07:30 AEST interval (21:30 UTC) is forecast at $37.89–$45.91/MWh across multiple predispatch runs, and the 08:00–09:30 AEST window is consistently forecast in the $11.30–$35.88/MWh range, with some runs pointing to sub-$1/MWh outcomes in the 09:30–10:00 AEST window. This overnight trough is typical for a Monday where commercial and industrial load is yet to ramp. Prices are then expected to firm into the morning shoulder, with the 16:30–17:00 AEST window (06:30–07:00 UTC Tuesday) forecast around $37.89–$53/MWh as the business-day demand ramp commences.

The most operationally significant active market notices concern South Australia, not NSW directly, but carry interconnector implications. AEMO has issued two foreseeable intervention notices (140937 and 140938) flagging a potential direction in SA from 09:30 AEST today (06/04/2026) due to voltage management requirements, with a market response deadline of 07:30 AEST. If insufficient market response is received, AEMO may direct generation, which can affect flows on the NSW–SA interconnector path via Victoria. NSW traders should monitor the SA situation closely ahead of the morning. Within NSW, a non-conformance notice (140936) was issued for unit WTAHB1 — a wind unit